THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: It seems people of Kerala have reasons to be worried if the current weather trends are any indication. After the India Metrological Department confirmed that the Arabian Sea has witnessed record cyclones this year after 1902, Met officials warn of a warmer winter this year. Due to the effects of post-monsoon cyclones and cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, the isolated rainfall activity in the state will continue for a few more days.
The morning temperature will see a dip only after the rain activity comes to a halt. Further, northerly that brings the dry continental cold wind to the state from the north is expected to be delayed. In short, the winter in Kerala which is very moderate as compared to North Indian cities is expected to be delayed by a week or so, according to weathermen. Thiruvananthapuram IMD Meteorological Centre director K Santhosh said, “The rise in cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea has its bearing on the state’s weather. We are also not anticipating a dip in temperature this time similar to that was experienced in the previous years,” he said.
According to the India Metrological Department stats, after 1902 which saw the maximum of five cyclones, of which four were severe cyclones, developed over the Arabian Sea, 2019 witnessed five cyclones over the sea and three depressions/deep depressions. Out of five cyclones over the Arabian Sea, four were severe and above-intensity cyclones. Similarly, the Arabian Sea has been more active this year with the formation of eight cyclonic disturbances (CDs) against the average of 1.7 cyclonic disturbances (CDs) per year.
At the same time, activity over the Bay of Bengal has been subdued this year as compared to the Arabian Sea with the formation of only three cyclones (Pabuk, Fani and Bulbul) against the normal of four per year. Of these, there were two severe cyclones (Fani and Bulbul), which is the normal per year.The change in the Arabian Sea’s storm pattern will have a direct impact on the local climate and the state is still witnessing isolated heavy rainfall despite the Northeast Monsoon season thinning out. The state had witnessed 13 per cent above normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon and 34 per cent excess rainfall so far during the current Northeast season.
Isolated heavy rainfall in south Kerala
T’Puram: South Kerala experienced moderate to isolated heavy rainfall on Saturday. Rain is likely to occur on Sunday as well. In Kerala, cumulative rainfall during this year’s north-east monsoon season from October 1 to December 11 was 639.5 mm against the normal rainfall of 478.4 mm, which was excess of the long period average (LPA) by 34%. Of the 14 districts, four districts received large excess, six districts received excess and the remaining four received normal rainfall. In Lakshadweep, actual rainfall was 790.1 mm against the normal of 294.4 mm, which was large excess of LPA by 168%.
Cyclonic disturbances
12 cyclonic disturbances (CDs), including depression/deep depression, developed over the north Indian Ocean (NIO), 4 over Bay of Bengal and 8 over Arabian Sea in 2019
Of the 5 cyclones over Arabian Sea, 4 were severe/above intensity
Of 3 cyclones over Bay of Bengal, 2 were severe/above intensity
Maximum of 10 cyclones developed over NIO in 1893 and 1930
Maximum of 5 cyclones, including 4 severe, developed over Arabian Sea in 1902
Arabian Sea witnessed 8 CDs in 2019 against the normal 1.7 per year
Of 5 cyclones over Arabian Sea, there was 1 super cyclonic storm (Kyarr), 1 extremely severe cyclonic storm (Maha), 2 very severe cyclonic storms (Vayu, Hikaa), and 1 cyclonic storm (Pawan)