KOCHI: There’s good news and bad news as far as the Kerala economy is concerned. As per the latest data, the Kerala Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) growth for 2022-23 stood at 4.24 per cent, a downward revision from the quick estimates of 6.6 per cent.
The good news is that in 2023-24 or the 12 months ended in March 2024, the state GSDP showed a growth of 6.52 per cent.
In the economic review, published by the State Planning Board in January 2024, the state GSDP grew by 6.6 per cent in 2022-23, which was 12.97 per cent in 2021-22.
However, now, as per the final figures submitted at the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi), there is also a downward revision in 2021-22 GSDP figures to 11.78 per cent.
“The GSDP data published by the State Planning Board was quick estimates. The figure available at Mospi is the final figure,” an officer from the Department of Economics and Statistics said.
The new data also revises downwards the entire set of GSDP numbers earlier released by the Planning Board. For instance, as per the Planning Board data, the state GSDP for 2022-23 stood at Rs 6,16,188.50 crore. But, this stands at Rs 5,96,236.86 crore or a good Rs 19,951.64 crore lower than earlier estimated.
For the year ended March 31, 2024, the state GSDP is pegged at Rs 6,35,136.53 crore, according to the data available at Mospi.
The new set of data also points fingers at the changing contours of the Kerala economy. For instance, the share of the primary sector comprising agriculture, crops, livestock, forestry etc fell to 7.82 per cent (11 per cent earlier) while the share of the secondary sector including manufacturing, construction, electricity, stood at 24.01 per cent. The share of manufacturing alone stood at 10.25 per cent.
The tertiary sector, which includes financial services, real estate, communication, road, air and water transport, stood at 57.21 per cent. The sector grew by 8.9 per cent from 2022-23, as per the Mospi data.
There is a gradual structural transformation in the economy from primary sector lead growth pattern to service sector lead growth overtime, said Veena Renjini K K, associate professor, University College, Thiruvananthapuram, in a recent paper.
“As against the moderate growth pattern of the secondary sector and service sector registers reasonably consistent performance, leaving the secondary sector in second place. The growth rate of the service sector over its time period is high and that can be correlated with the high-income elasticity of demand in tourism, banking, finance, real estate business and of course, the noticeable change in consumer’s demand."
"Thus, from the inception of the state service sector’s growth rate has shown an inclusive increasing trend in its contribution towards NSDP and therefore, it may be inferred that the sector will remain to continue as the largest contributing sector in the years to come,” she said, in the paper published in ‘Kerala Economy’, brought out by the Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation (GIFT).