KOTTAYAM: Nestled in the foothills of Vagamon, Poonjar, the birthplace of the Meenachil river, holds a significant place in Kerala’s political history.
It was from here that A J John, the chief minister of the erstwhile Travancore-Cochin legislative assembly, was elected in the first general elections of independent India in 1951-52.
In Kerala’s first two assembly polls, the Congress won the seat. However, it could not replicate the performance after the formation of Kerala Congress (KC) in 1964. Barring once in 1987, when Janata Party’s N M Joseph won, Poonjar has been the fortress of various KC parties.
K M George, one of the founding leaders of KC, was elected from Poonjar in 1967 and 1970. With the party seeing splits in the late 1970s, the contest became primarily between different KC groups.
In 1980, P C George entered the fray as the KC (Joseph) candidate. In the assembly elections since, Poonjar chose George seven times. He was defeated in 1987 and 2021 and did not get a seat in 1991.
As he gears up for his 10th assembly contest, George, now the NDA candidate, is challenging sitting MLA and LDF candidate Sebastian Kulathungal of the KC(M) and UDF candidate M J Sebastian aka Saji Joseph of the Congress.
As the high-decibel campaign came to a close on Tuesday, the outcome in Poonjar hinges not just on the clamour of campaigning, but on the evolving social dynamics within the constituency. The voter base here predominantly comprises Muslims and Christians.
All three major candidates belong to the Syro-Malabar Catholic community. And, it could once again be the Muslim vote that determines who represents Poonjar.
For in 2016, it propelled George to victory, while in 2021, it shifted decisively towards the Left. Currently, signals are mixed.
The recent local body elections hint at a consolidation of minority votes in UDF’s favour. Whether this trend will continue or be disrupted by longstanding loyalties and new strategic considerations remains the key question.