KOTTAYAM: With just a day left for the counting of votes in the assembly elections, much attention has shifted to the performance of Kerala Congress (KC) parties – including leading breakaway factions led by P J Joseph and Jose K Mani, whose survival will largely hinge on the poll outcome.
The election is particularly pivotal for Kerala Congress (M), led by Jose, who aligned with the LDF shortly before the 2021 assembly elections after being expelled from the UDF. A second consecutive defeat for Jose in Pala could not only jeopardise his political career but also potentially destabilise the party’s foundational structure.
In the 2021 election, KC (M) demonstrated its strength by winning five of the 12 allocated seats. However, Jose’s defeat was a blow to the party. In the aftermath, Roshy Augustine, who was second in command, ascended to a ministerial position, emerging as an alternative power centre. This time, too, Roshy’s statements announcing Jose’s candidacy in Pala triggered some controversy.
Given all that has transpired, nothing less than a victory will do for Jose to reinforce his clout. However, both Jose and Roshy’s election prospects – in Pala and Idukki respectively – appear far from rosy. Adding to the uncertainty, a failure to retain the previously held seats could precipitate a serious internal crisis for the party.
Jose has claimed that with no anti-incumbency in play, the exit polls point to the LDF continuing in power. “The results will prove that the people are with the government, which has delivered public welfare to every household,” he told reporters.
This election also marked a notable shift for the faction led by Joseph, who for the first time decided not to contest, making it a critical test for the party’s new leadership.
The party needs a significant victory to solidify its position within the UDF. Citing winnability, Congress denied the faction two seats that it had previously contested, reducing its allotment to eight seats. Any addition to the two seats the party holds in the current assembly will be viewed as a positive.
But if the wins are limited to Thodupuzha and Kaduthuruthy, where Apu John Joseph and Mons Joseph are respectively contesting, the party’s clout in the front will decrease.
The outcome is particularly significant for Apu, who is stepping into the spotlight by taking over his father’s constituency. According to Apu, the exit polls favour the UDF. “The front will get up to 100 seats. Our faction will win seven seats. If there is a UDF wave, we will win all eight seats,” he said.
The future of the KC factions led by K B Ganesh Kumar and Anoop Jacob will also largely depend on their performance in the election.