THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Could A Vijayaraghavan or P Rajeeve replace M V Govindan in due course? Will Pinarayi Vijayan step down, paving the way for K N Balagopal to assume the role of leader of opposition (LoP)? What kind of change does the party intend to carry out? Is the tussle for the deputy LoP position a mere plank to corner someone? And the biggest question: close to a decade after silencing ugly factional feuds, has the stage been set for a bitter internal conflict targeting the patriarch?
As the CPM gears up for its first ever extended state committee meet in Kozhikode from September 13, countless questions reverberate in political circles. While the official leadership is vouching for what it terms a change in style -- of a cosmetic nature -- the rival section, which is gradually gaining ground, wants more, especially discussions on new people at the top.
Following the assembly election defeat, most party committees were witness to criticism of the leadership, and the tendency to forge power centres. Given the sentiment against Pinarayi and Govindan, a change in leadership would be the only way to send a message that the party means business.
“It’s essential to give an impression to the masses that we have indeed reformed. The central committee (CC) knows that the party cannot afford to alienate the masses anymore, for the sake of one or two leaders. Moreover, there’s a feeling that the CC review hasn’t been effectively communicated to the grassroots,” said party sources.
Emergence of counter front
Although rather insignificant compared with the factionalism of yesteryear, there’s a difference of opinion within the state’s top brass on how to proceed. In today’s scenario, if the national leadership takes a strong stand on enabling a fresh crop, the state unit would be hard-pressed to respond.
From general secretary M A Baby to those on the lower rungs, including P Jayarajan, T M Thomas Isaac, Rajeeve and M M Swaraj, seem to be in favour of drastic change. A slew of other seniors like K K Shailaja, Balagopal and P K Sreemathi also support the move.
However, another section believes that the party should focus on reforms rather than according too much attention to the issue of leadership. “It’s no secret that the discussions would centre on change to win back mass connect and people’s confidence.
Some people demand change as they cannot live without positions. They forget that change will also force them to step down,” a secretariat member said. In addition to Govindan, leaders such as Saji Cherian, C N Mohanan, V N Vasavan, P K Biju, K K Jayachandran and Puthalath Dinesan are not very keen on placing the entire blame on the leadership.
Pinarayi seems to have sensed the pattern of criticism within the party and hence chose an alternative narrative for what happened in Taliparamba and Payyanur. A section feels it’s a deliberate move to silence talk of leadership change in the extended committee.
“Pinarayi himself was present in the central committee whose review listed out lapses. Now, the extended committee will deliberate a document being prepared based on state and central reviews. The discussions will address all the lapses, which may or may not include leadership failures,” a CC leader clarified.
Top contenders
Once talks hover around failure of leadership, party heads would take it as a hint to intervene and the CC could well propose a new secretary, in due course, if not immediately. Again, lack of alternatives remains the challenge. Among Baby, Pinarayi, Govindan and Vijayaraghavan -- the four politburo members from the state -- three occupy positions, leaving only one option.
“There seems to be talk on bringing back Vijayaraghavan, who was acting state secretary for over a year and should’ve succeeded Kodiyeri [Balakrishnan] in the natural course, to head the state unit. Since the masses are unhappy with two individuals, a change would be good for the party,” a leader from the state capital said. If a choice emerges from outside the politburo, secretariat member Rajeeve could also be a contender.
Speculation is rife that Pinarayi, thanks to his advanced age, could well step down after some time. It would bring in now-unofficially-second-in-command Balagopal to helm the opposition front in the assembly. If the deputy LoP issue remains dormant for now, the new scenario could even pave the way for the CPI to make a fresh claim.
“Pinarayi wants to make Dy LoP a major issue, while the CPM leadership is not fully opposed to CPI’s demand. In fact, it would be ideal if Pinarayi gives way to a youngster so as to ensure a more vibrant leader of opposition who can take on V D Satheesan,” a senior CPI leader said.
The politburo is in favour of changes to protect the only remaining Left stronghold in the country. In addition to the general secretary, a number of PB members, including Ashok Dhawale, B V Raghavulu, K Balakrishnan and Vijoo Krishnan, are expected to attend the three-day extended committee meeting.
What to expect
While fresh leadership remains a point of discussion, a change in style is what the CPM intends to introduce. An overhaul of the party’s mass line -- making it more responsive and accountable to the public -- is on cards. Similarly, the party education of cadres would also undergo changes. Since critics have been targeting the training sessions, a total transformation is what’s being proposed.
“A mere chanting of the phrase ‘the party has erred’ wouldn’t bring in anything fruitful. It should be followed by actions that can instil confidence among the masses. Mere open admissions won’t be enough. Unlike earlier, the matter of fixing responsibility on individual leaders is being taken seriously. A considerable presence in 2029 Lok Sabha polls would be a target,” said a CC member who believes the Satheesan government would be exposed in a year.
Meanwhile, political observers feel that drastic leadership changes are unlikely at the extended committee. “Had there been another tall leader who can take on Pinarayi, deviation from the central line would have become a point of discussion. In the current scenario, I think there won’t be any structural changes. Compared to the past, however, there would be more transparent and open discussions, which could bring in some positive results,” felt Left commentator N M Pearson.
The extended committee could well witness an implosion of sorts, points out veteran journalist and political observer R Harikumar. “Ideally it should be exercise in self-appraisal. If the party has a collective leadership, everyone in the state committee should be held responsible for the electoral performance,” he said.