BHUBANESWAR: With monsoon arrival likely to be delayed, Odisha’s concerns of a poor rainy season persists with the India Meteorological Department predicting on Friday that monsoon core zone (MCZ) is headed for deficit rainfall. Seasonal rain during June-September has been projected below 94 per cent of the long period average (LPA), thanks to the El Nino.
The MCZ covers Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Telangana and parts of Karnataka and the IMD said El Nino condition is expected to develop during the season.
In its updated long range forecast, the national weather agency said seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone comprising the rain-fed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be below normal. A weaker monsoon could impact agriculture production since the kharif season starts from May-end and continues till August.
Director general of IMD Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told TNIE that the forecast is not state-specific but certain parts may experience below normal rains. “Though state specific forecast is not issued, north Odisha may experience below normal rains while central and southern regions may record normal to above normal rains,” he said.
The IMD DG further said usually about 13 low pressure areas develop over the Bay during the monsoon and this year, the number could be less due to El Nino, he added.
Weather experts said Odisha has not recorded deficit rainfall during monsoons since 2000 and were optimistic that the state may receive normal monsoon rains this season too.
The southwest monsoon arrives in Odisha around June 10. This year, the monsoon was forecast to make onset at Kerala on May 26 but the IMD on the day said, it might get delayed.
The state normally receives 209.3 mm rainfall in June, 341.4 mm in July, 363.8 mm in August and 235.7 mm in September. The state recorded 1,150.9 mm rain in 2025 against its average of 1,150 mm. Pre-monsoon showers in the last week has been 85 per cent short.
While rainfall is likely to fall short, IMD’s temperature outlook for Odisha in June is not very encouraging either with the state likely to experience warmer conditions next month. Above normal heat wave days are expected over many parts of Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, said the national weather body.