CHENNAI: The bipolarity of Tamil Nadu’s political landscape, dominated by the DMK and the AIADMK, has earned it a unique place in India as perhaps the only major state that has resisted a coalition government for nearly seven decades.
However, a situation seems to have now arisen in which a combination of factors is likely to alter this status quo in 2026. These factors include the perceived weakening of the AIADMK, which could alter the bipolarity of the politics, the rising assertiveness albeit gradually of parties like VCK and the Congress in articulating their aspiration for sharing power and the latest being the new entrant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam’s assertion that the party, even if elected with a single majority, will share power with the parties that want to be allies.
Independent India’s history shows that all the southern states (barring the recently formed Telangana) and most major states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, and several northeastern states have all had coalition governments.
The last time Tamil Nadu had a semblance of a coalition government was when the Congress could not secure a majority in 1952. Rajaji had to be brought back to active politics to pull together support from various parties to form a government. M Manickavelu Naicker of the Commonweal party was also accommodated in that cabinet. It is another matter that the latter joined the Congress after K Kamaraj became chief minister in 1954.
Since then, Tamil Nadu never faced a situation, particularly after the emergence of the DMK and the AIADMK, where a party could not obtain a simple majority. The only exception was in 2006, when DMK won 96 seats, falling short of 22 seats for a majority. Instead of forming a coalition, the astute DMK supremo M Karunanidhi formed the cabinet without involving his allies Congress and PMK. The national leadership of Congress, which needed DMK’s support for its government at the centre, did not push for sharing power in the state. In return, Congress, which did not secure a majority at the centre, formed a government with the external support of DMK.
Other instances when TN came possibly closer to having coalition governments came in 1980 when the DMK and its ally Congress contested an almost equal number of seats, and in 2011, when the DMK contested only 119 seats, leaving the rest to its allies. In both these elections, however, the DMK alliance lost.
Moreover, although all elections in Tamil Nadu are contested with pre-poll alliances by DMK and AIADMK, no other party managed to emerge consistently with a significant vote share to demand a share in the government.
All this could change, especially with Vijay trying to position himself as an alternative and viable political force while enticing others to join him with the offer of sharing power. Vijay’s offer of power-sharing, which he described as a ‘political bomb’, can also be seen as an indication of his realisation that it may not be possible to seize power single-handedly in the first attempt.
Even if other parties, especially those in the DMK alliance, do not see him as a viable alternative with a chance of winning, his entry has increased the options for these parties, at least on paper, and thereby their bargaining power with the Dravidian major. If the decibel level of the demand for power sharing gets louder closer to the election, the two Dravidian majors may be cornered to relent to the demand.
Veteran journalist Tharasu Shyam recalled that there were chances for coalition governments in the past but they never materialised for various reasons. On whether the present scenario is moving towards a coalition government in 2026, he said, “Politics is not robotic but reflective. We can’t make a speculation now.”
Ramu Manivannan, former head of the Department of Political Science at the University of Madras, said, “It is difficult to dismiss coalition anywhere. We always want a coalition at the centre but in the state, I don’t think it is a convenient choice to make, especially in Tamil Nadu, since at the state level it may present a very weak government.”
(With inputs from Pon Vasanth BA @ Chennai)