CHENNAI: The 85% turnout recorded in the Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu on Thursday has triggered a lot of excitement. It is certainly “historic” if the turnout percentage is seen in isolation since the state that has never touched 80% turnout in any of the elections to the Assembly or Lok Sabha.
The sharp jump, combined with a palpable enthusiasm among young voters witnessed during the voting on Thursday, has also led many to jump to the conclusion that people have clearly expressed a desire for change.
With actor Vijay’s TVK widely expected to secure an impressive vote share never seen by a debutante party since the entry of AIADMK in 1977, there indeed may be a strong expression in favour of the emergence of a new political force in Tamil Nadu.
However, a sober look at the turnout makes it evident that there are other more mundane factors behind the “historic” show. The primary driver for the 11.4% jump in polling percentage from 73.6% in 2021 to 85% is undoubtedly the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls.
The SIR shrunk Tamil Nadu’s electorate by about 68 lakh (10.6%) from 6.41 crore to 5.73 crore. Assuming that the SIR had not happened, the 4.87 crore people who voted on Thursday would have translated to a turnout of 75.97%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from 2021. This is a conservative estimate since the absence of an SIR would have resulted in the electoral rolls increasing modestly in size from 6.41 crore.
Moreover, every Assembly election witnesses an increase in the number of people who vote, mainly driven by the population growth. It is noteworthy that the increase of about 23.5 lakh (7.19%) in 2026 compared to 2021 is the lowest, at least since 2006.
In contrast, Bihar, where SIR shrunk the electorate from 7.89 crore to 7.47 crore (by 42 lakh) in 2025, saw the turnout go up in Assembly polls to 67.2%, compared to 57.3 in 2021. The increase in turnout, unlike Tamil Nadu, was accompanied by a steep increase of 80 lakh in the number of people who voted in 2025 compared to 2021.
A district-wise analysis of the reduction in electorate size during SIR in Tamil Nadu showed a clear correlation. The districts that saw highest shrinking of electorate were also the ones that saw the highest jump in voter turnout. Moreover, when SIR happened in Tamil Nadu last, the electorate shrunk by 8.8 lakh between 2001 and 2006.
However, the number of voters saw an increase of 48.4 lakh between these two elections. The turnout went up from 59.07% in 2001 to 70.56 in 2006.