CHENNAI: A few months back, not many expected the DMK-led alliance, which has remained intact and has sailed smoothly since 2019, to run into rough weather ahead of the crucial Assembly elections. The tension, coupled with intense speculations, started with the emergence of discordant voices from within the Congress with a section of leaders demanding 45 seats to contest, which is 20 more than what the party contested as part of the alliance in 2021.
The maximalist demand is perceived to be the result of the national party’s intent to reassert its position as the third major party in Tamil Nadu, besides the two Dravidian parties, and its increased bargaining power is due to a potential alternative it saw in Vijay’s TVK.
With the seat-sharing between the DMK and TNCC expected to be sealed within the next few days, a look at DMK’s numbers from the past elections shows why the party cannot concede significantly more seats to its allies.
The reason for the prolonged stalemate this time is said to be the DMK’s keenness to contest anywhere between 165 and 170 and certainly not less than 165 seats to ensure a comfortable majority on its own and also to accommodate enough number of deserving candidates from its own party.
In 2021, DMK contested in 173 seats on its own and made its smaller partners to contest from the DMK’s rising son symbol taking the total to 188. Since 1967, DMK has contested below the 165 mark only thrice. In fact, if it contests in just 165 seats, that will be the fourth lowest for the party.
Analysts said that the decision of the DMK to contest more seats stems from its past experience of forming a minority government in 2006 when it contested directly in only 128 seats, and rising son symbol contesting in 132 seats, leading to a minority government.
Political analyst and Assistant Professor at Hindustan University Sunil Kumar pointed out that the Congress’s first demand for a share in power and their subsequent push for more seats seem to be a strategy to push DMK to form a coalition government.
“Although it seems to be a good strategy, the demand does not hold any substance since Congress have not proven anything on ground. DMK will not be oblivious of this strategy and they would not reduce their seats in the election,” he said.
Importantly, with the entry of DMDK in the alliance and the possibility of a few more smaller players joining the same, the ruling party has more partners to share the pie with, compared to the situation it faced in 2021.