CHENNAI: It is a given that elections are the ultimate high-stakes game that every politician worth their salt plays to win, with the cost of losing sharply increasing as they climb up the ladder.
In the forthcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly election, it wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that, among the leaders of the four key political formations, stakes are the highest for AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, as it is an existential election not only for him, but also for AIADMK — which has ruled the state for 31 of its 54 years of existence.
Since becoming the chief minister in 2017, Palaniswami did not merely survive but thrived in navigating turbulence within the party. He managed to emerge as its undisputed leader and ensure that the party remained largely intact albeit the drifting away of some leaders, though many question at what cost. The party’s vote share, if not victory, in 2026 is likely to be his last opportunity to justify that cost.
Palaniswami, who has not been able to lead the party to an electoral victory since 2019, is trying his best to project that AIADMK’s prospects are bright in the upcoming poll. However, it does not seem to match the confidence projected by the DMK-led alliance, which is compensating for criticisms on law-and-order, corruption and dynastic politics and anti-incumbency, with its strong alliance, welfare schemes, and its ‘TN vs Delhi’ narrative.
AIADMK’s U-turn in 2025 to realign with BJP, going back on Palaniswami’s promise to the minority communities in 2024 that the party would never align with the saffron party, has not helped much, although forging back the alliance was perhaps the relatively best option the party had.
The never-ending chatter on who controls the AIADMK-BJP alliance despite Palaniswami’s assertion that he was in command, plus him flying to Delhi to meet BJP leader Amit Shah to discuss seat-sharing, are affecting the former in the perception game, with some AIADMK old timers recalling the times when BJP’s top guns lined up in Poes Garden to meet their late supremo J Jayalalithaa. The former CM, who has managed to create an image of a decisive leader, has to assertively dispel the perception that the BJP is overshadowing AIADMK, if he is to reclaim political ground.
Despite challenges, Palaniswami exudes confidence, banking mainly on the anti-incumbency against DMK, which has never been able to return to power since 1971. Though AIADMK’s past successes relied on consolidating anti-incumbency votes, its ability to do so has now become doubtful. In 2021 polls, the party secured 33% vote share. In 2024, it dropped to 20.46% and for the first time its candidates lost deposits in Lok Sabha polls in seven constituencies.
AIADMK cadre argue that TN is known for voting differently in LS and Assembly polls. But, it remains to be seen in whose favour the splintered political space — with TVK, NTK, and VK Sasikala floating a new party and allying with a faction of the divided PMK — will play out. Whether history will judge Palaniswami’s emergence as the unchallenged leader of AIADMK as an achievement or a failure will depend on his ability to keep the party as one of the two major Dravidian political forces or one of the key parties in a fragmented space.