HYDERABAD: The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre at Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University (PJTSAU), with the financial support of the state’s Agricultural Marketing department, has assessed the pre-sowing price forecasts of major Kharif crops to be grown in the state during the 2024–2025 season.
These price forecasts are based on the monthly modal price data for 6–22 years from major markets of agricultural and horticultural commodities using econometric models like Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), ARIMAX, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the market survey covering farmers and traders.
‘Beneficial for farmers’
Speaking to TNIE, Principal Investigator Dr R Vijaya Kumari said that price forecasting is a beneficial tool for farmers. She said, “Pre-sowing price forecasts help farmers to plan ahead and choose the right crops.”
She further said that while pre-sowing price forecasts aid farmers in production-related decision-making, pre-harvest price forecasts aid farmers in marketing-related decision-making. “They help farmers decide whether to hoard the crops or take them to the market. It will be released one month before harvesting,” she added.
Apart from the PJTSAU website, the price forecasts will be published in Vyavasayam, the university’s monthly magazine in the vernacular language.
Dr Kumari said that to further spread the information among farmers, the forecasts are shared with the Agricultural Marketing department, which is then published in Vyavasayam Padi Pantalu, the department’s magazine.