HYDERABAD: After a brief monsoon revival in the second half of July, rainfall activity across Telangana had once again tapered off, pushing the state back into deficit territory. From June 1 to August 3, 2025, Telangana recorded an overall monsoon deficit of around 12%, while Hyderabad is facing a 24% shortfall, according to the Meteorological Centre, Hyderabad.
However, fresh hope now lies in a new active monsoon spell beginning this week, with the IMD forecasting thunderstorms and rainfall across several districts over the coming week. “From August 4 onward, we’re entering an active phase. There will be widespread rains, and August should more than make up for the current deficit,” a weather expert said, adding that many parts of Telangana, including Hyderabad, could even slip into the excess rainfall category by mid-August if the forecast holds.
“The third week of August — especially between August 14 and 17 — is being closely watched for a possible low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal that may bring heavier rainfall to interior Telangana and Hyderabad,” weather blogger T Balaji told TNIE.
Reasons behind dry first half
The initial weeks of the southwest monsoon saw uneven rainfall distribution due to an early onset but weak progress, especially in June. “There was a significant rainfall failure in June, and even though July helped the recovery, it wasn’t enough across all districts,” the expert noted.
One of the contributing factors to the recent dry phase is the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), an atmospheric phenomenon that suppresses or enhances rainfall across the Indian Ocean region. The MJO is now entering a phase that could support rainfall in Telangana over the next two weeks.
Among 33 districts in the state, Mulugu has topped rainfall charts in the last three monsoon seasons and has experienced recurring flooding and waterlogging.
“Its proximity to Chhattisgarh and its position within the core monsoon zone make it one of the first districts to receive rainfall when low-pressure systems form in the Bay of Bengal. Whenever a low forms in the Bay and moves inland, Mulugu is one of the first districts to receive heavy rainfall. It acts almost like a catchment zone,” Balaji explained.
In 2023, 2024, and so far in 2025, Mulugu has recorded above-normal to excess rainfall, often resulting in flash floods, landslides, and crop damage.
When will the monsoon end?
Typically, the southwest monsoon in Telangana withdraws by mid-October, though experts say the actual retreat can vary depending on large-scale atmospheric patterns. “Sometimes it extends till the last week of October, especially in La Niña or neutral years. Right now, it looks like we might have an extended monsoon this year,” the analyst noted.