HYDERABAD: After receiving well-above normal rainfall in July despite the prevailing El Niño conditions, Telangana is likely to witness a weaker second half of the southwest monsoon, with rainfall during August and September expected to remain normal to below normal. In July, the state received 224.3 mm of rainfall against the normal 227.4 mm.
The forecast indicates that while the state escaped the early-season rainfall deficit through widespread showers in July, the remaining monsoon months may not sustain the same intensity.
According to the IMD’s tercile probability maps, northern, western and southern parts of the state are expected to have the high probability of below-normal rainfall during the remainder of the southwest monsoon. The monthly outlook for August, however, presents a mixed picture. The IMD has forecast normal to above-normal rainfall over parts of north, east and northeast Telangana during August, while western and southern districts are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
The forecast also points to warmer conditions across the state. Both maximum daytime temperatures and minimum night temperatures during August are expected to remain above normal, increasing the likelihood of humid and uncomfortable weather, particularly during breaks in rainfall.
At the national level, IMD has projected that rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon season (August-September) is likely to remain below the Long Period Average (LPA), with total rainfall expected to be less than 94% of the seasonal average. August rainfall over the country is also expected to remain below normal.
The outlook attributes the subdued rainfall partly to the strengthening El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to IMD’s coupled climate model, El Niño is expected to intensify during the latter part of the monsoon season, which could suppress rainfall over large parts of India. At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail, with some international climate models indicating the possibility of a positive IOD developing by September, which could partly offset the El Niño impact. The forecast comes after Telangana witnessed an exceptionally wet spell during the second half of July, when several districts recorded heavy to extremely heavy rainfall under the influence of successive low-pressure systems.
Meteorologists, however, caution that a seasonal forecast reflects broad rainfall trends over a two-month period and do not rule out short spells of intense rainfall.