HYDERABAD: Escalating geopolitical tensions in West and South Asia are beginning to disrupt India’s dry fruit trade, with traders in Hyderabad warning of further price rises and possible supply shortages.
The conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran, along with tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, has affected key supply routes used to import dry fruits into India. Traders said shipments of almonds, pistachios, apricots, raisins and saffron from Iran and Afghanistan could face further disruption.
India depends heavily on these two countries for several premium dry fruit varieties. Importers said supply pressures began after military tensions between the US and Iran escalated in mid-2025, pushing up import prices. The situation worsened in October when Pakistan’s military action in Afghanistan disrupted regional transport networks.
Traders said shipments from Afghanistan were already being rerouted through Iranian ports after direct land transport via the Wagah border was halted following India-Pakistan tensions two years ago. If routes through Iran are affected, arrivals into India could decline further.
“Much depends on how the situation develops. If the Iranian route is disrupted, markets may have to rely largely on existing stocks,” said Vipul Sharma, a trader in Begum Bazaar.
Prices of several imported dry fruits have already risen sharply. Traders estimate that Iranian pistachios, apricots, mamra almonds and saffron have become 20–30% costlier on average.
Saganraj, a Begum Bazaar trader with three decades of experience, said wholesale prices of mamra almonds rose from about Rs 1,700 per kg in October to nearly Rs 2,800 per kg, while Iranian pistachios increased from Rs 800 per kg to around Rs 1,300 per kg. Apricot prices have doubled from Rs 700 per kg to Rs 1,400 per kg.
Retailers said the surge has begun to affect consumer buying patterns. “Customers who earlier bought larger quantities are now purchasing smaller portions. Sales volumes have dropped over the past year,” Vipul said.
Some traders estimate that business volumes have fallen by nearly half as buyers cut down purchases due to higher prices. Bulk consumers such as sweet manufacturers, hotels, bakeries and caterers are likely to feel the biggest impact. With the wedding season approaching, rising input costs could push up prices of sweets and other food products that use imported dry fruits.
Ashwin, a supplier of dry fruit sweets for weddings and large events, said the price rise is already affecting production costs. “Pistachios are used in many sweets and desserts. Even though prices have surged, we cannot switch to cheaper varieties without affecting taste and quality,” he said.
Traders added that while locally sourced items such as cashews may remain relatively stable, imported products like pistachios, saffron, apricots and figs are expected to remain volatile depending on how the geopolitical situation unfolds.