HYDERABAD: A comprehensive long-term scientific study has found that the Kawal Tiger Reserve has a sufficiently strong prey base to support a thriving tiger population, yet continues to lack resident big cats due to structural and human-induced challenges. The findings point to a key conservation paradox: while ecological recovery is underway, landscape-level constraints are preventing the return of a stable tiger population.
Titled “Could prey support recovery of a tiger population? Long-term density and carrying capacity assessment of a tiger reserve in India”, the study led by Imran Siddiqui (Centre for Wildlife Studies, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad Tiger Conservation Society) was conducted over 12 years from 2010 to 2022.
It analysed population trends of key ungulate species that form the primary prey for tigers, including chital, sambar, nilgai, wild pig and chousingha. Among these, chital recorded the most significant increase, rising from 1.94 individuals per sq km in 2010 to 6.08 individuals per sq km in 2022, attributed to improved protection measures and habitat management after Kawal was declared a tiger reserve in 2012.
However, prey trends were uneven across species. While chital numbers rose sharply, populations of sambar, nilgai and chousingha remained largely stable, indicating that conservation gains have not been uniform. Wild pig numbers fluctuated considerably, suggesting sensitivity to environmental and human pressures. These patterns point to the need for more balanced habitat management to sustain a diverse prey base.
Using prey density and biomass models, researchers estimate that Kawal’s core area of 893 sq km can support between 35 and 41 tigers, up from an estimated carrying capacity of around 24 tigers in 2010. Yet, the reserve has not established a resident tiger population.
Over the past decade, 15 tigers have been recorded dispersing into Kawal, but only two were females, preventing the formation of a breeding population essential for long-term recovery.
This gap has been linked largely to weak connectivity with neighbouring habitats. Kawal lies within an important central Indian landscape and is ecologically linked to reserves such as the Tadoba-Andhari Tiger Reserve.
However, these corridors are increasingly fragmented by highways, railway lines, mining and expanding human settlements. Key dispersal routes through forest divisions in northern Telangana have become bottlenecks, restricting tiger movement into the reserve.
Human pressures within and around the reserve further affect habitat quality. Nearly 30 villages are located within the core area, with dependence on forest resources, livestock grazing and instances of poaching continuing to impact the ecosystem.
The study also flags the use of free-ranging dogs for hunting and the risk of disease transmission from livestock to wild herbivores. In addition, human-tiger conflict in adjoining regions has created resistance among local communities towards conservation efforts, adding a socio-political challenge.
The researchers stress that restoring tiger populations in Kawal will require coordinated interventions beyond ecological recovery. Strengthening habitat connectivity through wildlife corridors, mitigating conflict, regulating grazing and enhancing anti-poaching measures are identified as immediate priorities. The study also recommends assisted dispersal of tigers, particularly females, to help establish a breeding population.