HYDERABAD: Nalgonda has narrowly escaped drought-like conditions, thanks to July rains and a recent spell triggered by a deep depression, even as the district continues to record Telangana’s highest rainfall deficit at 57%, just short of the 60% threshold used to classify drought.
A deficit of around 60% is considered the level at which a subdivision could be considered for drought conditions. With Nalgonda’s deficit only a few percentage points below the threshold, the district remains among those being closely watched as the southwest monsoon season comes to an end.
Telangana’s cumulative rainfall deficit currently stands at 17%, with the state receiving 601.8 mm against the normal 728.3 mm between June 1 and September 29. September has recorded a 9% deficit, with 139.2 mm of rainfall against the normal 152.3 mm, following a 42% deficit in August.
Rainfall distribution, however, remains uneven. Eighteen districts are currently recording deficits of more than 20%. After Nalgonda, Nirmal has recorded a 50% deficit, followed by Jogulamba Gadwal at 45%, Wanaparthy at 37%, Yadadri Bhuvanagiri at 35% and Sangareddy at 33%.
The uneven distribution has been a key feature of this year’s monsoon. While some northern and northeastern districts received substantial rainfall, several other parts of the state recorded significantly lower rainfall, leaving individual districts with much larger shortfalls despite the overall deficit remaining below 20%.
“A rainfall deficit of up to 20% is generally considered manageable, while deficits beyond 20% can affect agriculture and water availability. Nalgonda’s 57% shortfall therefore remains a concern despite the relief received during the season,” IMD Hyderabad meteorologist GNRS Srinivas Rao told TNIE.
The state received relatively few major weather systems during much of August, with several areas recording only scattered or light rainfall. This contributed to the accumulation of deficits in several districts.
With the southwest monsoon withdrawal progressing, Telangana will now transition towards the northeast monsoon, whose influence generally begins around the second week of October, though the transition is gradual.
“October and November can still see low-pressure areas and cyclonic systems. However, oceanic conditions could influence their strength and movement. The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to turn positive from October, while relatively cooler waters over the Bay of Bengal could limit the development of stronger systems along the eastern coast,” Srinivas Rao said.
Warmer winters ahead
Meanwhile, Telangana is likely to experience a warmer winter, with temperatures expected to remain around 3-4°C above normal. Day temperatures are already 3-5°C above normal, while night temperatures are 2-3°C above normal.