KOLKATA: Humayun Kabir, chief of the newly formed Aam Janata Unnayan Party and an expelled Trinamool Congress MLA from Bharatpur constituency, has joined hands with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM to contest the upcoming West Bengal Assembly elections scheduled on April 23 and 29, signalling a new political equation in the Muslim vote bank in the state.
While making an official announcement of the electoral alliance between the two parties at a luxury hotel in New Town on Wednesday, Kabir, alongside Owaisi, told reporters, “Both parties will contest the assembly elections in West Bengal together.”
Describing Owaisi as his elder brother, Kabir said, “Mere bada bhai Asaduddin Owaisi aaye hain. Our two parties will fight the elections together. We will soon announce a joint list of candidates.”
They will nominate candidates in 190 out of 294 Assembly seats in Bengal. Both leaders, sharing the same dais, will kick off their election campaign from Murshidabad, a district with more than 70 per cent Muslim population in the state, from April 1.
The Trinamool Congress expelled Kabir after he announced plans to build a Babri Masjid model mosque at Beldanga in Murshidabad in December last year. After being expelled by the ruling party on charges of anti party activities, he floated the new platform, AJUP.
“Our main agenda in this election is no development for minority Muslims in Bengal. Only seven out of 30 per cent Muslims in this state get jobs in government sectors. A large number of Muslims cannot even go to colleges. And Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has been using the minorities only for votes, but they don’t get any benefits,” Owaisi alleged.
Veteran Trinamool Congress MP Saugata Roy told the media in Delhi on Tuesday, “The electoral tie up between AIMIM and AJUP is a ‘bad development’ and said it may ‘isolate Muslim masses’.”
“Owaisi’s outfit is actually helping the BJP. But it will not have any impact. They do not have strength and will not get votes,” Roy told reporters.
The Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, has remained in power in the state for the past 15 years since 2011, largely due to its Muslim vote share, and this time too the ruling party is trying to woo minority voters to return it to power for a fourth term.
Around 90 Assembly seats in Malda, North Dinajpur, Murshidabad, Nadia, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas and Howrah are considered crucial due to the influence of minority votes.
For the first time in over a decade, multiple players are vying for a share of the roughly 30 per cent minority vote, a segment that influences outcomes in these minority dominated constituencies.
Political observers said the emergence of players such as the Indian Secular Front (ISF), led by Nawsad Siddique and allied with the CPI(M)-led Left Front, Kabir’s AJUP aligning with AIMIM, and revived Congress activity in Murshidabad and Malda has added a new layer of uncertainty to Bengal’s minority electoral arithmetic.
They said such developments could become one of the defining undercurrents of the 2026 polls.
“Earlier, minority voters consolidated behind the Trinamool since the party came to power in Bengal, ending the Left regime of 34 years. But the emergence of new platforms and local grievances has created micro level fissures that could hurt the ruling party in a tightly contested election,” political analyst Prof Biswanath Chakraborty said.
“The new political equation developed after the electoral alliance between Kabir and Owaisi might affect the electoral prospects of the Trinamool Congress in three districts, North Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad, but it can hardly damage the Muslim vote bank of the ruling party in most south Bengal districts such as North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, Nadia and Howrah,” Prof Chakraborty said.
The ISF, which shot into prominence in the 2021 Assembly polls after winning the Bhangar seat, has been attempting to consolidate younger Muslim voters disillusioned with mainstream parties. Siddique, its lone MLA, has repeatedly accused both the TMC and the BJP of exploiting minorities electorally.
Besides the emergence of newer political platforms such as AIMIM and AJUP in Bengal, another significant issue is how many voters in the ‘under adjudication’ category may become ineligible, losing their right to vote in the upcoming Assembly polls following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise.
Mamata Banerjee, showing solidarity with such voters, is expected to continue her campaign against the Election Commission of India to ensure that every voter retains their voting rights, which may yield electoral dividends, particularly among minority voters, he said.
“Minorities are treated like milch cows that are used only during elections,” he also said, alleging that the three term TMC government has failed to deliver real development.
Prof Abdul Matin of Jadavpur University said, “The alliance between AJUP and AIMIM can cause hardly any damage to the Muslim vote share of the Trinamool Congress because minority voters in Bengal are aware of the political credibility of Humayun Kabir and Asaduddin Owaisi. They may win several seats in Malda and Murshidabad, but not in other parts of south Bengal.”
“Owaisi was silent so far on the SIR since it was launched in November last year in Bengal at a time when the Trinamool Congress, CPI(M) and Congress were opposing the exercise, which allegedly left lakhs of people facing uncertainty and harassment. Kabir’s political credibility is doubtful among Muslim voters as he has been with Congress, BJP and the Trinamool. His masjid politics hardly matters in elections beyond initial media hype,” Prof Matin added.