The massive Lok Sabha victory has made the saffron party hungry for more. Even before the swearing-in ceremony of its government in the Centre, the BJP has started preparing for the 2019 elections. The long march would start with the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana to “wrest” control of these states from Congress.
With Prime Minister designate Narendra Modi at the helm, the party will go all out to install its governments in the states going to polls in the next few years. In 2015, Bihar, Jharkhand and Jammu Kashmir are going to polls; Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will go to polls in 2016, while Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Punjab in 2017. BJP hopes that it has a fair chance in most of these states.
The stunning turnaround in Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha polls, scripted by Modi’s confidant and BJP general secretary Amit Shah, has only added to the party’s hopes in the upcoming polls.
A little math would explain the euphoria in the saffron camp. Maharashtra added the second highest number of seats to BJP’s kitty—42 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats were won by NDA. The BJP and allies polled more votes in 240 of the 288 assembly seats.
A similar story was repeated in Haryana, which has never been BJP’s strong point. BJP won seven Lok Sabha seats of eight where it contested elections. The two seats contested by its ally Haryana Janhit Congress were lost. The BJP and its ally were ahead in 62 of the 90 Assembly seats. With two-thirds majority in Assembly constituencies, the BJP wants to strike while the iron is hot. Haryana goes to polls in October and Maharashtra in December.
“We have begun the preparations. The strategy will roll after the government swearing-in ceremony on Monday, as by then it would clear who all are part of the government,” a senior leader said.
“Three factors have revived our hopes. The new voters, the Dalit and backward castes who had deserted us in the past have veered towards us and the shift towards Modi have contributed to our success in Maharashtra. We would work on the same model. Add to that, the anti-incumbency of 15 years of Congress-NCP rule,” the senior leader added.
The latest results may also alter BJP’s equations with its partner Shiv Sena. In the past, Shiv Sena played big brother by cornering most of the seats. In 2009 Assembly polls, Sena contested 171 and BJP 117. But BJP managed to get two more seats. “There will be a tweaking of this ratio. BJP has emerged stronger,” the leader said.
BJP and its allies will not declare CM candidate in the state. Sources said Beed MP Gopinath Munde wanted to return to state politics. “His role would be clear after Monday. If he is in the cabinet, then he may not be projected as contender for the CM’s post,” a party insider said.
Sources said Shah may be tasked to strategise in Maharashtra given its complex caste structure. “We did a social engineering by allying with RPI, and other smaller parties that paid rich dividends. We won in regions like Marathwada, Konkan, Vidharbha, and even in South Maharashtra which were Congress and NCP strongholds.”
UP’s success had provided template for the Assembly polls. “(Amit) Shah reached out to the Dalits, OBCs and religious groups that were traditionally not approached by the BJP,” said a party leader.
If Maharashtra follows the UP model of campaign, it would be slightly different in Haryana. “In Haryana, the voters always like to have party and chief minister belonging to ruling party at the Centre. This makes sense as the Centre has a role to play in providing impetus to agriculture and control MSP for crops,” a senior BJP leader said.
BJP would project a CM candidate to engage with voters. Sources said the name of Captain Abhimanyu can make the cut. The battle has only begun.