What started as a student protest against an ill-conceived plan to create quotas in jobs, metamorphosed this week into a war on the streets of Dhaka against the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh.
While she is being vilified as an autocrat for terming the protesters as "Razakars" - the denigrative slur against the pro-Pakistan elements who backed the anti-freedom movement in ‘71 & ‘75, and has enraged a generation which has no memory of the war, the young are far more upset at being robbed of jobs in a shrinking economy. And facing bullets and pellets from the Army!
Hasina’s shutdown of the internet and refusal to critique the violent crackdown on the protesting unarmed students set off this blowout, a crisis of her own making. She’s pointing fingers at Pakistan’s ISI for engineering the riots through the Jamaat’s student wing, Chhatra Shibir, refusing to blame the Awami League student wing Chhatra League for the violence they unleashed on the students.
Unconfirmed reports say she’s in hiding, that she’s left the country and that there’s a coup underway.
While she squelched all these rumours by addressing the nation, there is a growing concern in Delhi, that their closest ally in the region has blundered badly. In fact, angry Bangladeshis are now accusing India of meddling, after Indian officials were pictured in a meeting with Hasina and the Army chief.
The violent protests that claimed 184 lives has led to a panicked exodus of Indian students from Bangladesh universities.
In addition, seen as India’s trusted ally, Hasina was given a cold reception during a recent visit to Beijing where she was forced to cut short her visit after Xi Jinping refused a one-on-one meet and did not sign off on the funding she wanted.
Delhi needs Hasina to stay in power for strategic reasons. But, facing alleged moves by the UK, the US for refusing to green signal a military base, many say, the US, UK & Pakistan are revving up plans anew to dislodge her from the PMship.
The recent elections where she won a third term were widely seen as fraudulent, stage managed. But this time with a job quota imposition, even if it was watered down, she may have given them an unexpected weapon.
Clearly, while the street protests may have petered out, the anger remains. This is the first big challenge to her in the 16 years she has held office - casting a shadow on her record as the longest serving female leader in the world.
Can Hasina see this through. What can India do? We talk to Syed Badrul Ahsan, noted London-based commentator on Bangladesh affairs and Prof Dr. Sreeradha Datta, who is part of the Track 2 dialogues on Bangladesh.