BUDAPEST: If long-time Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban emerges victorious from this month's general election it will have consequences far beyond the central European country, analysts say.
Since his return to power in 2010, Orban has repeatedly tussled with the European Union, with Polish and Irish leaders condemning his government's close links with Moscow as "sinister" and "repulsive" Tuesday after the latest revelations of leaked phone calls between foreign minister Peter Szijjarto and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.
The EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas was even more scathing, saying "European ministers should work for Europe not for Russia."
Orban -- who is close to Russia, China and the United States under President Donald Trump -- has regularly paralysed EU foreign policymaking by wielding Hungary's veto.
The nationalist has repeatedly held up EU sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and blocked aid to the war-torn country, even trading barbs with Kyiv during the election campaign.
If Orban were to score a fifth consecutive term on April 12, analysts believe he would dig in further.
But with the campaign entering its final stretch, independent polls show conservative challenger Peter Magyar well ahead.
If Magyar and his TISZA party win, he is expected to improve relations with the EU and unlock billions of euros for Hungary that Brussels has frozen over rule-of-law and other concerns.
Geopolitical stakes
Another Orban win "would mean the continuation of the current course, where Hungary acts as a spoiler, blocking common European action and limiting the EU's ability to speak with one voice", said Zsuzsanna Vegh of the German Marshall Fund, a US think tank.
She predicted that the 62-year-old would feel "increasingly emboldened" because he "enjoys Trump's backing."
But Zoltan Kiszelly, from the pro-government Szazadveg think tank, foresees an eventual compromise with the EU.
"Brussels wants Hungarian votes for unanimous decisions, while the government wants EU funds to get the economy back on track," Kiszelly told AFP.
He said Hungary could negotiate a formal "opt out" from certain EU decisions as a possible solution.
But neither analyst foresees "unconditional" pro-EU policies or changes on migration policy if Magyar wins, nor that he would be strongly pro-Ukraine.
Kiszelly said that under Magyar, "the Hungarian veto would cease to exist within the EU" and he would not oppose Brussels as "dramatically" as Orban.
"The country would not present such a sharp alternative. But it would still attempt to restrain the Brussels mainstream, as (Italian Prime Minister Georgia) Meloni and (Slovak Prime Minister Robert) Fico are doing," he added.
Effects on far right
But Orban's defeat could have consequences for an ideological battle far beyond Hungary. "Trump would lose his biggest advocate within the EU and nobody would be at the table to offer the same kind of alternative, for a while at least," Kiszelly said.
Orban is a "symbolic figure in the global sovereigntist-nationalist, far right movement", said Andras Biro-Nagy, the head of the Policy Solutions think tank. If he were to lose the vote, it could "affect this entire network", Biro-Nagy told AFP.
"Many leaders consider Orban a source of inspiration and his 16-year hold on power is what ultimately lends him his credibility," he added.
The Hungarian premier's re-election bid has been endorsed by fellow hard-right leaders from around the globe, including Trump, Meloni and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hungary's future
Most analysts believe an Orban victory would see Hungary continue down an anti-democratic path.
"He clearly gave up on implementing reforms to secure the EU funds and, with that, is moving to openly disregard EU law and even EU court decisions," said Vegh.
"If Orban wins, we can expect further radicalisation and escalation of aggressive actions against political opponents," agreed Biro-Nagy.
He pointed to a speech Orban made in February, in which he vowed to continue his crackdown against "fake civil society organisations, bought journalists, judges (and) politicians".
Magyar has pledged to carry out the reforms required of Hungary to access frozen EU funds.
But whether he can bring lasting change depends on the scope of his victory, Biro-Nagy said.
"If TISZA obtains a two-thirds supermajority, then it could attempt to dismantle Orban's system," which has brought the prime minister into conflict with Brussels over corruption and the rule of law.
But a narrow win would mean just a "change in government rather than the change of system" promised by Magyar, according to the expert.