ISTANBUL: A court-ordered ouster of Turkey's main opposition leadership has left the party in chaos, exposing deep divisions that analysts say could benefit President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in any early elections.
Last weekend, scenes of unprecedented chaos unfolded when riot police stormed the Ankara headquarters of the Republican People's Party (CHP), Turkey's oldest political faction, firing tear gas as they threw out its elected leaders.
The intervention came days after the court dismissed leader Ozgur Ozel in a move that critics have denounced as the latest brazen attempt to remove Erdogan's political rivals ahead of elections, which are due by May 2028.
"The speed and intensity of these recent moves suggest that elections may come even earlier than anticipated... that the CHP remains a serious threat to Erdogan," Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder of the Istanbul Political Research Institute, told AFP.
"The aim is not merely to divide the opposition, but to directly paralyse the party that still has the organisational capacity, electoral strength and political legitimacy to become an alternative to the government," she said.
The ruling overturned the 2023 primary that elected Ozel, and returned his defeated rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a lacklustre and ineffectual figure, as leader causing a damaging internal "legitimacy crisis" within the party.
In that context, calling an early election could be a logical next move to capitalise on that weakness.
"From Erdogan's perspective, early elections could be advantageous if the CHP is forced to enter the process divided, legally constrained and internally exhausted," Seren Selvin Korkmaz explained.
Hamish Kinnear, principal analyst at Global Risk Insight, said the crisis inside the CHP could drag on for months or even years.
"The government will doubtless be considering early elections given the new fault line in the main opposition party," he told AFP.
Although Turkey's constitution limits a president to two consecutive five-year terms -- which for Erdogan would end in May 2028 -- he could still run again in a snap election.
CHP has risen in the polls since leading mass street protests following the March 2025 arrest of its presidential candidate, Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu -- Erdogan's most powerful political rival -- with Ozel emerging as a key figure within the party.
After being thrown out of CHP HQ on Sunday, he defiantly climbed onto a water cannon truck before marching through heavy rain to parliament, flanked by supporters, his white shirt soaked.
'Massacre of democracy'
Pressure on CHP has soared since its sweeping local election victory over Erdogan's AKP in 2024, with more than a dozen of its mayors arrested on charges ranging from graft to terror ties.
"Erdogan suddenly panicked," Ozel told AFP on Sunday, describing the Turkish leader's moves against the legitimately elected opposition as "a massacre of democracy".
"Just as he imprisoned the presidential candidate who could defeat him, he now wants to decide who his rivals will be and who will lead the opposition parties. He wants to win the next election this way."With Imamoglu behind bars, observers say Erdogan's focus has now shifted to Ozel as the party's likely presidential candidate.
During last year's protests, Ozel emerged as the face of the opposition, but has also been targeted by a string of lawsuits although he has avoided prosecution due to parliamentary immunity.
"Modern-day autocrats want to preserve the facade of democracy, so they don't do away with elections," said Gonul Tol of the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
"The ballot box doesn't matter if you get to pick your own opponents and jail those who could beat you."
'Overt manipulation'
Erdogan's AKP has denied any role in the turmoil besetting CHP, with its spokesman Omer Celik describing the party as "more chaotic internally than the Middle East".
During the 2023 presidential election, when Kilicdaroglu was trounced by Erdogan, a government source told AFP the lacklustre politician was definitely the AKP's preferred rival.
But Korkmaz said such "overt" moves to refashion the opposition would not be lost on the electorate.
"At a time of deep economic hardship, such overt manipulation of the political field may generate a broader backlash," she said.
For now, observers say Ozel's strongest card would be to stay within CHP, where he was voted its parliamentary group chair on Friday.
Ozel told protesters in Izmir on Tuesday he would push for an extraordinary party congress as soon as possible.
Korkmaz said Ozel becoming parliamentary group chair was important.
"It keeps him inside the institutional body of the party while contesting the capture of the party headquarters."