The Monsoon session of Parliament opens on Monday against a backdrop of shifting political alliances, contentious legislation and protests unfolding just a few kilometres from Parliament House.
Although the government's legislative agenda does not yet include a fresh Constitution Amendment Bill on women's reservation and delimitation, the proposal is expected to dominate political discussions after its defeat in the previous session. The issue has regained prominence following Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge's call for an all-party meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is understood to be working to secure the two-thirds majority required for a constitutional amendment. Government sources say its priority during the session will be to ensure the passage of key legislation, even as it prepares for what is expected to be an aggressive opposition campaign.
For both the government and the opposition, the session is likely to test not only legislative arithmetic but also their ability to navigate an increasingly fluid political landscape.
A changing opposition landscape
The opposition enters the session with altered political equations.
The INDIA bloc, which had presented a united front during the last Parliament session, has seen visible strains in recent months. Several regional parties that previously opposed the government's delimitation proposal have softened their positions.
While the Congress remains opposed to the proposal, parties including the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) and Shiv Sena (UBT) have indicated they could consider supporting a revised Bill if it includes safeguards for states.
The DMK, which strongly opposed the earlier version, has also said it will first study the new draft before taking a position.
The political landscape has shifted further following the split within the Trinamool Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT).
On Saturday, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla approved the merger of six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs with the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, increasing the ruling ally's strength in the House.
The Speaker also approved separate seating arrangements for 20 rebel Trinamool Congress MPs who have aligned with the Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI), although their request for formal recognition remains under consideration. The Trinamool Congress has sought their disqualification.
The developments have strengthened the NDA's position in the Lok Sabha, although it remains short of the numbers needed to independently secure the two-thirds majority required for a constitutional amendment.
The ruling alliance is also believed to be only a few seats short in the Rajya Sabha, where abstentions by opposition parties could prove significant if the Bill is introduced.
Protests likely to spill into Parliament
Outside Parliament, the government is also facing pressure from an ongoing protest at Delhi's Jantar Mantar.
The Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), which has been staging demonstrations over the alleged NEET examination irregularities, has announced a march to Parliament on Monday.
The protest intensified after activist Sonam Wangchuk was forcibly taken to hospital by Delhi Police during his hunger strike, prompting organisers to sharpen their demand for Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation. The opposition is expected to use the issue to target the government during the session.
Another flashpoint is the alleged embezzlement of donations at the Ram temple in Ayodhya. Opposition parties, particularly the Congress, have signalled that they intend to raise the issue forcefully in both Houses. Government sources, however, maintain that the matter falls within the jurisdiction of the Uttar Pradesh government.
Contentious legislation on the agenda
Alongside the political confrontation, the government has listed several significant Bills for consideration.
Among them are the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Amendment Bill and the Viksit Bharat Shiksha Adhishthan Bill, both of which are expected to attract opposition scrutiny.
The government also plans to introduce legislation making intentional disruption during the singing of Vande Mataram a punishable offence, along with Bills to increase the sanctioned strength of Supreme Court judges and replace an ordinance granting tax exemptions to foreign institutional investors investing in government securities.
Opposition prepares broad attack
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has already outlined the issues his party intends to raise, including alleged institutional capture, defections, corruption, price rise, foreign policy, ethanol blending in petrol, the NEET controversy and the Ram temple donation case.
The Congress held its own strategy meeting earlier this week, while opposition parties are expected to meet again on Monday morning despite visible divisions within the INDIA alliance.
The government, meanwhile, has convened the customary all-party meeting on Sunday ahead of the session.
Officials say the Centre plans to defend its handling of the NEET controversy by highlighting action taken against those accused and measures introduced to ensure a fair re-examination process.
Despite the political turbulence expected both inside and outside Parliament, government sources say the Centre's principal objective remains unchanged: securing the passage of its legislative agenda before the session concludes on 13 August.
(With inputs from PTI)
