NEW DELHI: The government of India’s think-tank Niti Aayog has forecast a 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers (e-2W) in the Indian market by FY 2026–27 in case of an ‘optimistic scenario’.
Under this scenario, all factors that have a positive influence on the adoption of e-2W have to be present.
The very crucial demand incentive is assumed to be in place throughout the period and the battery cost is assumed to reduce by 8% annually. It is also assumed that the range and power of the vehicle has to be improved by 5% during FY 2024 to FY 2026 and by 10% in FY 2027, the report noted.
Niti Aayog forecast that e-2W sales may cross 2.2 crore units in FY 2028–29 under the ‘optimistic’, ‘same performance’ and ‘battery cost challenged’ scenarios. In case of the ‘incentive-driven’ scenario, in which demand incentive is assumed to continue throughout but with only 2% reduction of battery cost annually and no improvement in range and performance, the e-2W sale will touch around 55 lakh unit and at a market penetration of 21.86% by FY 2031
In the least favorable ‘challenged diffusion’ scenario, a maximum market penetration of only 5.82% will be achieved by FY 2024. This will be followed by a decline due to removal of demand incentive.
Total e-2W sales in FY 2022 stood at around 2.31 lakh units, up 460% over FY21 sales. However, its penetration was around 2% in total 2-wheelers sales. Major research firms in India believe that EV penetration will reach 15-20% in total 2Ws by FY 2026 in terms of sales.
Two-wheeler sales in India to get a leg up
e-2W sales in FY 2022 stood at 2.31 lakh units, up 460% over FY21. Its penetration was nearly 2% of 2-wheelers sales. Major research firms in India believe EV penetration to reach 15-20% by FY 2026 in terms of sales