In a year defined by significant trade volatility, India’s exports to the United States have undergone a remarkable two-step transformation. According to a new report from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), 85% of India’s US exports followed a distinct pattern of a sharp mid-year decline followed by a resilient partial recovery by November 2025.
The GTRI analysis highlights that total exports to the US fell 20.7%, dropping from $8.8 billion in May to $7.0 billion in November. The fall peaked in September, when shipments hit a trough of $5.5 billion—a 37.7% plunge from May levels. However, between September and November, exports rebounded by 27.3%.
GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava noted that this recovery occurred even as the US maintained a steep 50% tariff on many Indian goods. "The drop between May and September likely reflected the shock and uncertainty created by impending tariff hikes," Srivastava explained. He added that once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers adjusted by renegotiating prices, absorbing costs, and restocking for the holiday season.
The "fall-and-rebound" arc was visible across nearly all major product categories. As India’s single largest export, smartphone shipments crashed from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September before surging back to $1.8 billion in November.
The Gems and Jewellery sector saw one of the most powerful adjustments, plunging from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, then rebounding to $406.2 million by November. Machinery and mechanical appliances neared a full recovery, ending November at $614.6 million—just 1% below May levels.
The textile sector faced intense pressure. Knitted apparel remains 33% below May levels, while industrial textile fabrics collapsed by nearly 72%. Fish and crustaceans exports dropped to $113.1 million in September before recovering to $143.7 million, still 36% lower than May.
Despite the positive momentum in late 2025, GTRI warns that the rebound may be fragile. The current recovery is driven by short-term coping strategies and holiday demand rather than a permanent improvement in trade conditions. Most sectors, including smartphones and pharmaceuticals, still remain significantly below their May 2025 peaks.