Crude oil prices are expected to fall below $60 a barrel by the end of 2025, driven by robust supply and subdued global demand, according to S&P Global.
Premasish Das, executive director of S&P Global Commodity Insights, speaking on the sidelines of S&P’s Commodity Market Insights event, stated that crude prices are expected to slide by year-end and hover in the $55-$60 range. The oil market is currently well-supplied, primarily due to higher output from OPEC+ and weak global demand. Beginning April, OPEC+ decided to unwind its 2.2 million barrels per day production cut on a monthly basis.
This decision initially caused crude to slump to $60 before recovering to around $70. The cartel had implemented these cuts in 2022 to support prices. Global oil demand, on the other hand, remains muted, largely due to a slowdown in China, the world's biggest oil importer. However, he also cautioned against potential geopolitical risks, including the Iran-Israel conflict and the possibility of OPEC+ reinstating supply cuts.
In such a scenario, oil prices could climb to $70-$75, he added. Das noted that India’s oil demand is expected to remain robust in the second half of the year. The country’s oil demand growth is anticipated to rise by 110-120 thousand barrels per day in the second half of 2025.