What we have witnessed in recent days in Tianjin and then China’s ‘Victory Parade’ in Beijing this week is nothing short of momentous. As nations struggle and pivot around to realign to a new axis, these are watershed moments perhaps not seen since the dramatic Bandung Declaration of 1955. It was in Bandung, Indonesia 70 years ago, when 29 Asian and African developing countries laid the foundation of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) advocating political and economic independence of nations from the Cold War power blocs.
For this dramatic shift in geopolitics, we have to thank none other than Donald Trump. Unleashing a tariff assault across the globe, and threatening foes and friends alike, he has re-juggled the dominoes and opened a large window of opportunity for China to lead a new anti-US axis.
Attempting to force India and others to queue up behind his ‘America-first’ doctrine, it is Trump who has triggered a new movement of self respect among nations. Admitting to shooting himself in the foot, Trump said on Truth Social on Friday: "Looks like we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together."
Tianjin and Beijing
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) floated by China in 1996 as a security bloc dubbed the ‘Shanghai Five’ has always been a nondescript set-up. It was initially formed in 1996 to settle post-colonial border disputes between Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Trump has just breathed life into this regional bloc as nervous nations look for alternative markets after the hammer blows of the US’ new tariff regime kicked in. When the last session of the SCO was held in July 2024, Prime Minister Modi opted out on the pretext of a Parliament session at home. It was a snub to the Chinese at a time when India had declared itself to be the US’ card against Chinese domination.
With the additional ‘Russian oil’ tariff of 50% kicking in from 27 August, India is now looking to mend fences with China as its opts for a more multi-polar foreign policy. No wonder Narendra Modi went scurrying to Tianjin.
The SCO platform has thus served as an important platform for the new found allies to send out their varying signals. For India, the hand-holding bonhomie displayed by India’s PM towards Vladimir Putin was a clear signal India will assert its right to buy Russian oil and arms if it comes cheaper than American-made.
For Putin, it was a signal to the West that he was not an isolated pariah. On 31 August he demonstrated his clout standing alongside nearly two dozen SCO members’ and other invitee heads of states. Tianjin was also the platform where China’s Xi Jinping flagged China was ready to lead a new alternative axis of nations to counter the ‘imperialist’ world order headed by the U.S. and its European cronies.
Nobody doubted he was referring to the U.S. when Xi JinPing said: “Adhere to fairness and justice…oppose Cold War mentality, camp confrontation, and bullying behaviour”. Though China pledged just $1.4 billion in loans and grants for SCO member countries, it also proposed the creation of an "SCO development bank" to boost economic cooperation. It is the start of a new Global South initiative.
The Tianjin Summit was followed by China’s victory parade in Tienanmen Square in Beijing to celebrate 80th anniversary of World War 2 - also called the Great anti-Fascist War. The scale of the parade was unprecedented. It displayed China’s latest weaponry in hypersonic missiles and AI-enabled drones. There were also 10,000 troops marching in perfect unison - a message of discipline and armed might.
Compare this to the rag-tag U.S. army contingent that marched past the White House in June. The hurriedly put together military event to celebrate the US’ 250th anniversary with out-of-step soldiers, and yawning aides hardly reflected a powerful U.S. nation Trump wanted so much to showcase.
Hindi-Chini-bhai-bhai
On the other hand, the military narrative emanating from Beijing was the war in the Pacific against Japanese fascism was won not by the Americans but by the sacrifice of the Chinese people. Compared to the half a million US war casualties, China lost 4 million troops and over 15 million civilians, among the highest toll in the world.
Flanked by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea strongman Kim Jong Un, and backed by a dozen or more heads of state, President Xi Jinping signaled he was ready and willing to take on the US both in peace and in war.
For India, one cannot expect all the Tianjin bonhomie to be converted to ‘Hindi-Chini-bhai-bhai’ overnight. The nuances from Beijing have to be read correctly. While India was not invited for the Tienanmen parade on 3 September, Pakistan’s premier Shehbaz Sharif was. In his light blue suit, Sharif prominently flanked Xi Jinping throughout the event. In military cooperation, China and Pakistan have a long-standing military alliance described by both as ‘Ironclad brotherhood’. Nearly, 85% of Pakistan’s military hardware is of Chinese origin.
At the international level too, what we have is not the emergence of a non-aligned movement (NAM) of the type seen in the Nehruvian era. Instead, there is a realignment of Super Powers with a declining United States, a fast-eroding Russia and a rising, invigorated China. In this scenario, India will be best served by following a multi-polar policy that will draw a balance between the big boys, while sealing regional alliances with her smaller neighbours.