CHENNAI: A new analysis by JP Morgan has flagged significant risks from the US government’s decision to impose a steep fee of $100,000 on new H-1B visa applications. The report estimates that this move could result in the loss of nearly 5,500 foreign work authorisations each month, with Indian professionals likely to be the most affected.
According to JP Morgan economists Abiel Reinhart and Michael Feroli, quoted by Bloomberg in a late Tuesday report, the number is based on 2024 data, when the US approved about 141,000 H-1B petitions for new employment. Roughly 65,000 of these were processed through US consulates abroad, and such cases are seen as most vulnerable to the sharp increase in costs.
India’s tech workforce is expected to bear the brunt, as 70–71% of H-1B approvals last year went to Indian nationals. For decades, Indian engineers, software developers, and consultants have formed the backbone of America’s technology sector, particularly in IT services, consulting, and research roles. The higher fee could now discourage firms from hiring mid-level or early-career Indian professionals, shifting demand only to top-end, high-paying roles.
JP Morgan notes that while the broader US labor market may not feel a direct shock, the impact on technology, finance, and consulting industries could be significant. These sectors are heavily reliant on skilled immigration to fill specialized roles. Companies may face higher staffing costs, longer hiring cycles, and growing pressure to relocate jobs overseas.
Assessing the implications on JP Morgan's workforce itself, CEO Jamie Dimon has reportedly said the fee increase “came out of the blue” and stressed that access to global talent is critical for competitiveness. Other multinational corporations, especially in the technology and consulting space, are also reviewing hiring strategies.
However, the US administration has defended the fee, saying it will encourage domestic hiring and reduce dependence on foreign workers. However, economists and industry groups warn that the move could slow innovation, weaken productivity, and push investment away from the US.
For India, the new rule comes as a direct blow. The country sends the largest number of H-1B professionals to the U.S., and any slowdown in approvals would affect both employment opportunities and remittance flows. Indian IT companies, which derive a major share of their revenue from US. clients, may face higher costs and greater hurdles in securing visas for their staff. This could dampen earnings growth, impact project delivery, and weigh on investor sentiment in Indian stock markets.
Broader risks and challenges of the fee hike
Job losses for Indian talent: Mid-tier roles could vanish, as firms prefer to use the costly visa only for senior or high-end positions.
Cost burden for companies: Sponsoring new H-1B visas could become prohibitively expensive for small and medium-sized firms.
Shift in talent flows: Skilled workers may look at alternative destinations like Canada, the UK, or Australia, where visa regimes are relatively friendlier.
Innovation risk for the US: Limiting access to global talent could hurt the competitiveness of US firms, especially in cutting-edge technology.
Industry analysts, quoted in the reports, note that the coming months will reveal whether firms choose to absorb the higher costs or shift more work offshore