NEW DELHI: The new GDP series, with base year 2022–23 and scheduled for release on February 27, fine-tunes several data points to more accurately map household consumption patterns, or Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), which accounts for 55–60 per cent of the country’s GDP.
Dairy consumption gets a fresh benchmark.
For the first time, estimates of consumption of milk, butter, ghee and ice cream will be based on a dedicated study by the ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute (NDRI), Karnal.
The study, with a reference period of 2021–22, provides updated ratios for the share of milk production used for home consumption, marketable surplus and processing losses. It also offers insights into the utilisation of surplus milk for various dairy products.
Retail prices derived from the study will be extrapolated using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), replacing older static assumptions.
Counting the cars on the road
One of the most technically complex revisions relates to measuring consumption linked to road transport. The new methodology draws on two updated data sources to replace dated assumptions.
First, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has commissioned a study by the Centre for the Study of Regional Development at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU).
The study will provide granular information that was previously unavailable or static, including earnings per vehicle for different types of commercial vehicles; the proportion of total earnings attributable to household use; and household expenditure on fuel, lubricants, repairs and maintenance of personal vehicles.
Second, the government will use vehicle registration data from the Vahan portal to estimate the total stock of vehicles. However, a sub-committee flagged the risks of simply aggregating registrations, warning of potential double-counting due to inter-state transfers and the absence of reliable de-registration data. After rejecting 10-year and 15-year accumulation methods as 'unrealistically high', the panel opted for a more pragmatic approach.
The committee chosen to adopt a framework being developed by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH), which classifies vehicles based on registration status, fitness certificates, insurance coverage and pollution certificates to determine the active vehicle stock.
Accounting for food waste
The extent of food wasted between the farm and the fork directly affects the final consumption available to households. The new series incorporates findings from the 'Post-Harvest Losses of Agricultural Produce in India 2022' study conducted by NABCONS for the Ministry of Food Processing Industries.
The study provides updated wastage ratios across a range of agricultural commodities, replacing older estimates.
Valuables, art and antiques
Estimation of valuables, such as gold and precious stones held as stores of value, will now be updated dynamically using the latest Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) and Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (AUSE), instead of relying on fixed ratios.
The committee has also suggested expanding the category to include antiques and art objects.
"However, while household spending on art is captured in the All India Debt and Investment Survey (AIDIS), establishing a regular data flow for other institutional sectors remains a challenge," officials noted.