India’s draft National Steel Policy – Vision 2047 targets crude steel capacity of 604 million tonnes (MT) by 2047, nearly 2.75 times the current 220 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). It also projects that the sector’s coking coal requirement will more than triple to 236 MT annually, underscoring the challenge of securing raw materials for the industry’s expansion.
The draft pegs finished steel demand at 505 MT by 2047, up from 164 MT in 2025-26. Per capita steel consumption is projected to rise to 302 kg from 116 kg, while exports are expected to reach 45 MT. The capacity target assumes an average utilisation rate of 88%, translating into crude steel production of 531 MT.
The proposed policy will replace the National Steel Policy 2017, which envisaged crude steel capacity of 300 MTPA by 2030-31. The new draft projects capacity of 294 MT by 2030, marginally below the earlier target.
The draft identifies raw material security as a key challenge, noting that raw materials account for 65-70% of steelmaking costs. India imports about 92% of its coking coal requirements, primarily from Australia, the US and Russia. Annual coking coal demand is projected to increase from the current 72 MT to 236 MT by 2047.
Domestic coal-washing capacity remains underutilised. India has about 39 MTPA of operational coking coal washing capacity, but output is only around 6 MT from roughly 17 MT of feed coal. The draft attributes the gap to low yields and idle capacity.
Iron ore demand is projected to rise to 772 MT by 2047 from 299 MT currently. While India is self-sufficient in iron ore, the draft flags a decline in the share of high-grade ore in reserves, from 70% in FY19 to 46% in FY22.
To improve raw material security, the ministry proposes acquiring overseas assets, expanding coal washeries and optimising coal blends to increase the use of domestic coking coal. It also proposes a viability gap funding scheme for slurry pipelines transporting iron ore and coking coal, alongside a single-window clearance mechanism for such projects.
On decarbonisation, the draft aims to reduce average emission intensity from 2.54 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude steel to about 1.54 tonnes by 2047. It outlines a four-phase transition, beginning with energy efficiency and renewable energy, followed by coal gasification, green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) production and, eventually, carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS).
However, the draft does not specify a target for absolute emissions. Based on its own projections, annual emissions would rise from about 432 MT of CO₂ currently, calculated using 170 MT of crude steel production and an emission intensity of 2.54 tonnes, to around 818 MT by 2047, based on projected production of 531 MT and intensity of 1.54 tonnes. This would nearly double emissions despite the improvement in emission intensity.
The draft also notes that India became a net exporter of finished steel in 2025-26. Imports fell about 32% to 6.5 MT, while exports rose around 36% to 6.6 MT. To strengthen the domestic industry, it proposes AI-based import monitoring and continued trade remedies against sub-standard imports. More than 60% of steel imports come from countries with which India has free trade agreements.
Secondary steel producers, comprising around 2,550 units and accounting for about 47% of capacity, are set to receive support for raw material access, technology upgrades and skill development. The draft also proposes setting up a Steel Industry Safety Council and a Safety Directorate with jurisdiction over all iron and steel producers.
The ministry plans to review the demand projections approximately every five years.