GUWAHATI: The People’s Pulse, a Hyderabad-based organisation engaged in social and political research has predicted that Mizoram is headed for a hung Assembly.
As per the People’s Pulse’s prediction, the ruling Congress is set to get 14-19 seats in the 40-member Assembly. Opposition Mizo National Front (MNF) will get 15-19 seats, the Zoram People’s Movement 2-4 seats and the BJP 0-2 seats.
Mizoram has a history of ten years electoral cycle since statehood barring first two years. By that logic, the Congress is supposed to be dislodged by a new dispensation. However, this election is a bit different from earlier ones. Mizoram has never experienced hung Assembly in the seven elections since statehood with the Congress and the MNF alternating power, but the presence of ZPM and BJP in the fray might leave its impact. The defection of home minister and important leader R Lalzirliana along with four other MLAs to MNF has weakened the Congress, which continues to be hit by internal infighting, the organisation said.
“The BJP began seriously by fighting in 39 constituencies and by fielding in its campaign Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah. The party banks on the minority votes primarily, but projects on the ideals of genuine secularism to rebut the accusations that it is a Hindutva party in a Christian majority state. The other factor this time is the conglomeration of two parties - ZPM to fight against both the Congress and the MNF. This conglomeration’s nominees have contested 35 constituencies as Independents but on the common election symbol of Hat. The two main constituents have their old followers and the group may emerge as third largest player after poll result. It has one sitting MLA at present,” the survey report said.
It also said the Church, which played a major role in enforcing prohibition in the state through legislation in 1995 is upset with its partial lifting in 2014 by the same Congress party. The MNF and the ZPM have vowed to bring back total prohibition if they come to power whereas the BJP favours license only for the production of local liquor.
“If Congress emerges as the single largest party but short of majority, it will have limited option for coalition compared to the MNF. The smaller parties may feel more comfortable to ally with the regional party. If the BJP manages to get two or three seats, they will try its best to keep the Congress out of power and make the Northeast Congress-free which they always claim they would. But its failure elsewhere in four other state elections will not be compensated arithmetically and politically,” the report added.