NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department on Monday forecast a warmer winter and fewer cold wave days during this season that spans from December to February. The weather office forecast above-normal minimum temperatures during the season. However, the rainfall prediction is likely to be above normal especially over south peninsular India in December.
The forecast of a relatively warmer winter came after the country experienced the second warmest November since 1901, with the average maximum temperature clocking 29.37 degrees Celsius -- 0.623 degree above the normal of 28.75 degrees for the season.
“During the upcoming winter season (December 2024 to February 2025), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD director general, told reporters.
According to the forecast, the normal number cold wave days for the whole season will less by two to four days. The occurrence of cold waves over the northwest, central, east, and northeast parts of the country is likely to be below normal.
Moreover, emergence of La Nina phenomenon (cooling of east Pacific Ocean) was not as per expected.
The IMD predicted a lesser chance of emergence of La Niña during this winter, leading to subdued rainfall. Experts from a private weather agency said the warmer winter is due to non-emergence of La Nina.
November witnessed high deficient rainfall (-55%) countrywide. “From past three years, the country has witnessed a consistent drier November than previous years,” said Mohapatra. “The rainfall all over India (13.5mm) was 14th lowest since 1901 and third lowest since 2001,” he added.
He said lack of western disturbance events and only two weak low pressure areas formed in the Bay of Bengal led to lesser rainfall in the season.