India is expected to experience a deficit in rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season (August-September), which will further complicate the agricultural kharif sowing period. So far, the first half of the monsoon season (June-July) has recorded just 13% deficit of the long-period average rainfall, leading to a 5% decrease in kharif crop sowing.
The presence of moderate El Niño in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which is projected to strengthen during the second half of the monsoon, has led the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) to predict below-normal rainfall (less than 94% of the long-period average) for this period. This will likely result in above-normal daytime and night-time temperatures across the country. The IMD estimates that August and September will receive 422.8 mm of rainfall, which is considered below normal.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon characterized by the warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, which is associated with a weaker monsoon in India.
Moreover, August is expected to receive less rainfall. Long-term analysis shows that rainfall in August has been on a declining trend.
According to the IMD, in August 2026, rainfall across the country is likely to be below normal (less than 94% of the long-period average) in many areas, except for parts of eastern Peninsular India, some areas of northwest and central India, and isolated regions in the east and northeast.This decreased rainfall in August will lead to warmer day and night. The sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain above normal due to El Niño.
Earlier, the country experienced normal rainfall (+1% above the LPA) in July, contrary to the IMD's predictions. Good rainfall during three weeks in July reduced the overall rainfall deficit in the country to -13%, down from a deficit of -35.4% at the end of June. However, the rainfall in July was unevenly distributed; 53% of the country's districts received normal to above-normal rainfall, while 46% experienced deficit to large deficit rainfall.
Additionally, East and Northeast India recorded the sixth-lowest rainfall, and the Southern Peninsula the tenth-lowest since 1901, indicating a substantially below-normal monsoon in these regions.
As a result of the decreased rainfall, July was the second warmest on record for the Southern Peninsula since 1901, with nights being the warmest recorded during this period. East and Northeast India also experienced their warmest July on record.