DEHRADUN: Less than a month after the monsoon arrived in Uttarakhand on June 30, a sharp contrast in rainfall has emerged across the state. While some districts have received more than twice their normal share of rain, others continue to experience near-drought conditions.
The widening disparity has alarmed weather experts and scientists, who say the changing rainfall pattern could intensify the threat of landslides, flash floods and extreme rain events in the Himalayan region.
Professor S P Sati of Veer Chandra Singh Garhwali Uttarakhand University of Horticulture and Forestry, Bharsar, has analysed the latest rainfall data and associated weather factors. His analysis flags the increasingly erratic distribution of rainfall as a matter of serious concern.
Although the monsoon officially reached Uttarakhand on June 30, the India Meteorological Department calculates seasonal rainfall from June 1. Data recorded between June 1 and July 21 show that the state's overall rainfall was only about four per cent below normal, a variation considered to be within the normal range.
A study on rainfall variability and change in the Western Himalayan region was conducted by Prof. Vishwambhar Prasad Sati of Mizoram University, Aizawl.
Speaking to TNIE, Prof. Sati, a climate expert who has conducted an in-depth study of Himalayan weather patterns, said, "An analysis of rainfall data from the past 162 years depicts high variability in rainfall patterns. Rainfall decreased drastically during the monsoon season, whereas it increased during the dry season of October and November. Similarly, the rain that occurs during the winter months of December and January due to western disturbances decreased, whereas rainfall increased during the dry season of March and April."
District-level figures, however, tell a dramatically different story.
Bageshwar recorded the highest surplus, receiving 763.8 mm of rain against the normal 341.7 mm for the period—an excess of 124 per cent. The district has therefore received more than twice the rainfall normally expected at this stage.
The figure is particularly significant because the monsoon season is still in its early phase. Such intense rainfall could leave slopes saturated and increase the likelihood of landslides, extreme precipitation and sudden flooding in the weeks ahead.
Tehri Garhwal reported the second-highest surplus. It received 505.6 mm of rainfall against the normal 346.4 mm, an excess of 46 per cent. Chamoli followed with a 40 per cent surplus, recording 401.2 mm against its normal 286.8 mm.
At the other end of the spectrum, Pauri Garhwal registered a 41 per cent deficit. Against the normal 434.4 mm, the district received only 257 mm during the same period.
Nainital, normally among the wetter districts, recorded 464.2 mm against an expected 700.5 mm, a deficit of 34 per cent. Champawat also remained substantially rain-deficient, receiving 389.5 mm against the normal 565.5 mm, or 31 per cent less.
The contrast between a 124 per cent surplus in one district and a 41 per cent shortfall in another highlights an increasingly uneven monsoon footprint. Experts fear such localised extremes could create a double challenge: disasters triggered by excessive rainfall in some mountain districts and water stress affecting agriculture, springs and drinking water supplies in others.