NEW DELHI: In its monthly forecast, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts that November will be relatively warmer and drier in most parts of the country, particularly in the Southern Peninsula. Additionally, the Northeast monsoon is expected to be weaker, resulting in below-normal rainfall in this region.
In another cyclonic development, a fresh cyclonic storm is brewing over the Bay of Bengal, and if it continues to persist, it will be named 'Morasu.' This storm is anticipated to impact the coast of Andhra Pradesh from November 2 until the early morning of November 3.
Furthermore, below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of India, except for certain areas in central, northwest, east, and Northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected during November 2026.
The Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall for the country in November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is approximately 29.7 mm, with the IMD predicting rainfall to be below 77% of the LPA.
The Northeast monsoon, currently active over the Southern Peninsula, is also likely to be below normal (less than 77% of LPA). The LPA of rainfall over South Peninsular India in November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 118.7 mm.
The Southern Peninsula comprises five meteorological subdivisions: Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikkal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala & Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka.
This reduced rainfall is attributed to the strengthening of El Niño conditions, which are expected to persist through November, leading to less rainfall in winter.
The IMD forecast indicates that November will feature warmer days and nights. Daytime temperatures are expected to be above normal in most parts of the country, except in some regions along the foothills of the Himalayas, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are anticipated. Similarly, night time temperatures will also be relatively warmer across most parts of the country, except in many areas of central and eastern India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are expected.
Currently, very strong El Niño conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate model forecasts predict that these very strong El Niño conditions are likely to continue throughout November and December 2026.
In addition to ENSO conditions over the Pacific, other factors, such as Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), also influence the Indian climate. The latest MMCFS and other global climate model forecasts indicate that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to persist during the post-monsoon season.
Notably, October was the warmest October for the Southern Peninsula since 1901, with a mean temperature anomaly of 1.17 °C, compared to the normal mean temperature for October of 26.85 °C. The country also experienced its warmest day in October.
The average maximum temperature for the month was 32.43 °C, the highest recorded, while the average minimum temperature of 20.83 °C was the fifth highest since 1901.