NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon began to withdraw from parts of west Rajasthan on Saturday, slightly later than the normal withdrawal date of September 17. The region is facing a cumulative rainfall deficit of approximately 15%. The southern peninsula, as well as east and north-eastern India, are experiencing high deficits. The complete withdrawal of the monsoon, an annual phenomenon lasting four months, is expected to end by October 15. In 2025, the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon commenced on September 23—a six-day delay.
Massive dry air is expected to enter northwest and west India next week. This influx of dry air may eliminate any remaining moisture in northwest India and intensify the withdrawal process. Monsoon withdrawal may not begin in central and eastern India until September 30 and will start shortly after the dissipation of any low-pressure areas. The Indian Meteorological Department’s bulletin indicates that the line of withdrawal of the southwest monsoon currently passes through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala in Rajasthan.
As of Saturday, India has received 695.6 mm of rainfall, compared to the normal figure of 817.2 mm. The southern peninsula has experienced a rainfall deficit of 28.5%, followed by eastern and northeast India with a deficit of 25.7%, and northwest India with a deficit of 9.5%. Central India has recorded a deficit of 5.4%. Rajasthan has experienced its lowest rainfall in the past 16 years. In 2025, the total seasonal monsoon rainfall across the country was 936.8 mm, which is 108% of the long period average.
There is also a possibility of the first cyclone of the year forming in the North Indian Ocean, which may approach Odisha and Andhra Pradesh next week. If formed, it will be named Arnab and will be the first cyclone to form in the region since Cyclone Ditwah in November 2025.