File | LPG tanker Shivalik arrives at Mundra Port after safely crossing the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions in Hormuz 
India

Iran warns war could reach Indian Ocean, raising stakes for India

Tehran's threat to widen the conflict beyond the Red Sea could put India's shipping and energy links with West Asia under greater pressure

TNIE online desk

An Iranian warning that the ongoing Middle East conflict could spread to the Indian Ocean has raised fresh concerns for India, given the country's dependence on the region for energy supplies and maritime trade.

Yahya Rahim Safavi, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Thursday that Tehran could widen the conflict if the US or Israel launches further attacks.

"Since the conflict has spread from the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, it is possible that, in response to more war, the front will expand even further, reaching the Indian Ocean and perhaps beyond," Safavi said in a video released by Iran's Fars news agency.

Yemen's Houthis, fighting Saudi-backed government forces, recently took control of the Red Sea coastline, tightening their grip on the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, which links Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal.

Iran has long provided military support to the Houthis but denies any involvement in the Yemen conflict.

The Islamic republic has also locked down the Strait of Hormuz off the Iranian coast, in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes that triggered the Middle East war at the end of February.

Iran and the United States are now vying for control of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil and gas passed before the war.

Iranian officials had already threatened to expand the geographic scope of the conflict if US strikes resume.

But Thursday's warning is the first time an adviser to Iran's supreme leader explicitly mentioned the Indian Ocean, home to a strategic US-British military base at Diego Garcia, nearly 4,000 kilometres from Iran.

Officials from both countries held talks in New York this week on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in a further attempt to end the conflict.

Iran has put forward its conditions for ending the war, including the lifting of sanctions targeting its economy and the unconditional release of its frozen assets abroad.

In an exclusive interview with AFP on Tuesday, a spokesman for Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Mohebi, also mentioned ending the war in Yemen.

Any expansion of the conflict into the Indian Ocean would bring the fighting closer to India's maritime neighbourhood and could affect commercial shipping along routes connecting India with the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

India is particularly exposed to disruption in the region because a significant portion of its crude oil imports comes from the Middle East. Any threat to shipping through the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz or adjoining waters could push up oil prices, freight costs and marine insurance premiums.

The Strait of Hormuz is especially important to global energy supplies, while the Red Sea is a major route for ships travelling between Asia and Europe. Disruptions in the Red Sea have already forced several shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing journey times and costs.

A conflict spreading further east could therefore create additional pressure on Indian importers and exporters, while also complicating the movement of Indian-flagged and India-bound vessels.

The development could also increase the security responsibilities of the Indian Navy, which has previously deployed ships to protect merchant vessels and respond to maritime threats in the wider Indian Ocean region.

For India, however, the immediate significance of Safavi's remarks remains uncertain. The Iranian adviser warned that the conflict could expand to the Indian Ocean but did not specify whether Iran would target commercial shipping, military assets or any particular country in the region.

The statement comes as the geographical footprint of the conflict has already widened from the Persian Gulf towards the Red Sea, raising concerns that further escalation could increasingly affect major international shipping and energy routes.

(With inputs from AFP)

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