The election season is heating up, so are the conversations at local tea shops and street corners. What usually begins as a discussion on candidates and winners often ends up in informal bets. And one might have to pay a ‘heavy price’ for it.
While money may be involved in some cases, more often it is symbolic, ranging from treating friends to a meal to carrying out light-hearted dares. Sometimes it’s just for pride, sometimes for bragging rights, and sometimes it’s the sheer thrill of seeing a friend squirm.
“It’s not like people sit down and decide to gamble on election results. These bets are born out of excitement, arguments, and the intensity of discussions. That’s what pushes people to make a claim and stand by it,” says Harikumar (name changed).
“Earlier, it was mostly a fun activity. Campus bets often turned into dares, like boys wearing sarees and girls turning up in mundus and shirts.
Sometimes it was as simple as treating friends to porotta and beef. People even bet on doing Sayana Pradakshinam. Even bigger bets were usually settled or compromised among friends themselves,” he adds.
Now, as the assembly election approaches, debates are on — whether the LDF can secure a historic third term, if the UDF can stage a comeback, and how many seats the BJP might realistically win...
Amid the noise, TNIE explores the lesser-seen side of elections, the informal betting culture — its past, its quirks, and its place in the present.
‘Moustache to cars’
After a recent local body election, a CPI worker, Babu Varghese, made a bet with a friend that he would shave off his moustache if the LDF failed to retain power in Pathanamthitta municipality. When the UDF won, he kept his word, publicly shaving off his trademark moustache.
But sometimes, it ends up in a tussle. For example, the bet made by a CPM worker, Kannan, during a previous assembly election. He had promised to shave off his moustache if the BJP managed to win even a single seat. When the party won the Nemom constituency with O Rajagopal, the situation escalated.
Rival political workers reportedly held him down and forcibly shaved off half his moustache, turning a casual bet into a police case.
And sometimes, the bet is easier made than kept, and it quickly goes viral.
Baiju Thekkan, a Congress activist from Chavakkad, lost his car after a bet with BJP leader Suni over the Thrissur Lok Sabha result.
The bet was made while they were having tea. Baiju had promised to give up his car if UDF candidate K Muraleedharan lost, while Suni pledged his Maruti Swift if Suresh Gopi was defeated. Following Muraleedharan’s loss, Baiju honoured the bet.
Once, Aam Aadmi Party member Somnath Bharti had publicly declared that he would shave his head if Narendra Modi won a third term. After the results, however, he refused to follow through. He argued that the victory happened due to alliance support, triggering debate and criticism.
Another funny story goes of a man who bet on a candidate, saying he would shave the right side of his moustache and the left side of his head if he lost.
As the results neared and doubt crept in, he went to another group and made the opposite bet, this time promising to shave the left side of his moustache and the right side of his head. When the results came in, he ended up shaving it all. The video went viral.
A bit of history
While these wagers may seem light-hearted, betting around elections is far from new. A 2004 study by economists Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf, which analysed US presidential betting markets between 1868 and 1940, found that such markets were widespread, highly organised, and often remarkably accurate in predicting outcomes.
Historians trace the practice even further back, noting that wagers on political outcomes existed long before modern polling. Today, however, there are signs that this culture may not be as widespread.
“In our generation, it was common to bet on many things. I still remember a friend who bet his gold ring and lost it, but the other person was kind enough to give it back,” smiles Prasad K, an electrician based in Thrissur.
He adds that such betting is rare among the youngsters now. “Even political discussions have been reduced. Beyond that, general interest seems to have declined,” he adds.
New-age dares
College students say they now prefer healthy discussions and verbal challenges rather than making bets, which they feel is immature.
However, some still engage in it for just fun. Even petrol, now a priced commodity, has become part of it.
“Over the phone, a discussion with a friend on the Iran–Israel war shifted to Kerala politics and elections. He said the LDF would not return to power this time. I bet `1,500 worth of premium petrol in my Bullet (Royal Enfield) that they would. If I lose, I will fill petrol in my tank and give him my bike for a week,” says Ashwin Krishna, a media professional.
Renjith M, a techie, has also placed a bet on the upcoming election. “I have placed two bets that the BJP will win at least three seats. If not, I will have to treat my gang of six at a top restobar.
The second bet is for a mega-treat for my neighbourhood friends during our church feast,” he smiles. “Whether I win or lose, we will have fun.”
As times change, so does the way people place these bets. What was once loud and visible is now smaller and private. The stakes may be lighter, but the impulse has not gone away — after May 4, who knows what new bets, dares, or surprises might spill out?
Just for fun
A funny betting story goes of a man who bet on a candidate, saying he would shave the right side of his moustache and the left side of his head if he lost. As doubts crept in, he went to another group and made the opposite bet, promising to shave the other sides. When the results came in, he ended up shaving it all.