NEW DELHI: The country is heading into the post-monsoon and winter cropping season with a growing water concern after the 2026 Southwest Monsoon ended with rainfall 12.6% below normal, while the southern peninsula recorded a sharper 24% deficit.
The shortfall has left several major reservoirs with significantly less water than both last year and their long-term average, raising concerns over irrigation availability for the upcoming Rabi season. The southern peninsula is among the worst-affected regions, with the rainfall deficit adding pressure to already stressed river basins.
Data from the Central Water Commission (CWC), which monitors 178 major reservoirs, shows that their combined live storage stood at 132.734 billion cubic metres (BCM) at the end of the monsoon.
That represents 71.84% of their total live storage capacity and is substantially below last year’s 166.856 BCM. The current storage is also below the 10-year average of 151.118 BCM, signalling a weaker water position as farmers prepare for the winter crop cycle.
The situation is particularly concerning in the Cauvery basin, where deficient rainfall has increased water stress. Lower reservoir levels could intensify competition over water between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, particularly as irrigation requirements rise during the Rabi season.
The CWC data shows that the problem extends beyond the south.
The northern region, covering Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan, has 11 monitored reservoirs, all recording storage below both last year’s levels and their normal averages.
The western region, with 58 reservoirs, and the southern region, comprising 50 reservoirs, are similarly reporting storage below last year and normal levels.
The picture is more mixed elsewhere.
The central region, with 28 monitored reservoirs, received relatively normal rainfall. Although its storage is lower than last year, levels remain above the long-term average.
Eastern India presents an unusual contrast.
Despite recording its lowest rainfall since 1901, according to the data cited, the region’s 31 monitored reservoirs have more water than at the same time last year and remain above normal storage levels. The outlook could add to the pressure.
The India Meteorological Department has indicated that post-monsoon rainfall between October and December could remain below normal, potentially limiting replenishment of reservoirs and soil moisture.
Forecasts of a strengthening El Niño through the coming months could further complicate the water situation by contributing to reduced soil moisture and affecting irrigation availability.
With reservoir levels already weakened after the monsoon, the coming months will be crucial for India’s agricultural economy. The immediate concern is whether available water will be sufficient to sustain Rabi cultivation while meeting competing demands for drinking water, irrigation and other uses.