The latest report of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has assessed that the world is set to cross 2 degree Celsius of warming around mid-century despite a major acceleration in emission cuts in greenhouse gases (GHG). There is only a 50 per cent chance of returning to the 1.5°C goal by the end of the century, it indicates and says that it could even breach the upper limit target of 2°C under current policies. The report has flagged the need for urgent as well as stringent cuts to GHG emissions to minimise the magnitude and duration of overshoot and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The report ‘The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return’ looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and global temperature rise returning to or below 1.5°C by 2100.
“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. “So, we must pull out all the stops to minimise peak warming and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This is possible.”
What about global effort?
The world has committed to tackling climate change, but the measures currently in place —even if all existing promises are fulfilled — may not be enough to prevent dangerous levels of global warming.
Researchers estimate that under current policies, global temperature could rise to 2.6 °C to 2.8 °C above pre-industrial levels this century, exceeding the 2 °C upper limit of the 2015 Paris Agreement targets to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change. The Earth’s average temperature is compared with the pre-industrial level, the average temperature before large-scale industrialisation.
There is also a small, 10 per cent chance that warming will exceed 3.4 °C on the current trajectory, which researchers say would be catastrophic.
To get onto this pathway, the report charts a path to cut GHG emissions by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels. By contrast, fully implementing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would reduce emissions by only 5-8 per cent by 2030 and 11-15 per cent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, where all NDCs and additional net-zero targets are met, global warming would be limited to 2.1°C this century. Without urgent action, keeping peak warming below 1.7 to 1.8°C will quickly become impossible. Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels raises the peak warming prediction by approximately 0.1°C.
Furthermore, the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario requires removing and permanently storing roughly 320 gigatonne of CO2 (about eight years of 2024’s global CO2 emission) over the course of this century. However, socio-economic and technological challenges make achieving this goal uncertain.
Implications of warming
The 2.6°C to 2.8°C of warming means the planet’s average temperature could rise by that amount above the pre-industrial average by the year 2100 under current policies. This is a rise in the global average, not the temperature increase in every individual place. Some regions may warm much more than others, and land generally warms more than oceans. Even a few degrees of global warming can cause major changes, including more intense heatwaves, rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and greater risks of droughts and floods. Researchers estimate a 10 per cent chance that warming could exceed 3.4°C if the world continues on its current trajectory. The Paris Agreement adopted a resolution in 2015 to keep warming well below 2°C (upper limit) above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. If the world warms by 2.6°C to 2.8°C, it would exceed the 2°C threshold by approximately 0.6°C to 0.8°C. That would increase the risks of severe climate impacts.
India and other G20 countries
Most major economies are expected to reduce emissions further, while India’s total emissions may continue to grow as its economy develops by 2035. However, the report emphasises that the average Indian’s contribution to emissions remains comparatively low. The report acknowledges India’s commitment to achieving its new NDC target by 2035. It may reach its 2035 climate target without necessarily reducing total GHG emissions, while most major economies will need stronger measures to achieve their long-term climate goals.
India’s growing economy requires more energy, which increases GHG emissions. Despite this, India’s per-capita GHG emissions are significantly lower than in most other major emitting countries. This suggests that India’s rise in emissions from electricity generation, transportation, industry, agriculture, and other activities is driven by its developmental needs.
Under current policies, only six G20 members, including China, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation, South Africa, and Türkiye, are likely to meet their unconditional targets for 2030. The report states that the assessment for the European Union remains inconclusive. Additionally, the new unconditional NDCs targets for 2035 are expected to result in lower emissions compared to the 2030 targets for all G20 members with such targets, except for India. The European Union is anticipated to see the largest absolute reduction in emissions, followed by China.