The political dynamics of Punjab are fluid and any analysis of it on the basis of past elections is fraught with privileging a priori assumptions over fast-changing ground realities. Political dynamics in Punjab have traditionally revolved around the axis of religion and caste and some important shifts have taken place in the core support bases of various parties.
The most visible of these happens to be among the traditionally Akali-supporting Panthic Jatt Sikhs who as a religious community feel betrayed by the party in the aftermath of three controversial incidents: the pardoning of Dera Sachcha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim by the Akal Takht — a move that was revoked subsequently; the desecration of the Guru Granth Sahib; and the subsequent police firing upon protesting Sikhs. This section of Jatt Sikhs perceives the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as the new Akali Dal on account of its claim to represent the interest of Sikhs. Secondly, another visible shift taking place on the ground is among Dalits, who are divided along caste and religious lines.
For instance, a significant section of the Valmiki Hindu Dalits, a traditional support base of the Congress, is likely to shift towards the Akalis on account of the latter’s welfare programmes for Dalits in general and the massive financial support given to build a Valmiki temple in Amritsar. Similarly, the Ravidasi/Chamar Dalit caste, primarily concentrated in the Doaba region of the state, are likely to vote for the Congress this time as they find no incentive in the government’s welfare programmes on account of their relatively better-off economic status.
Thirdly, the core support base of the BJP in the urban constituencies, primarily among Hindu business communities like the Banias, Khatris and Aroras, is likely to witness a major shift towards both AAP and Congress on account of the massive slump in business, indifference of the state government to their plight and the consequent trend of shifting of business firms to neighboring states like Himachal Pradesh and Haryana for better incentives.
Against such a backdrop, political parties are adopting generic strategies to appeal to each and every section of society, and focused strategies to impress specific communities. Having realized its weak footing among Panthic-minded Jatt Sikhs and the middle class, the Akalis are slanting their welfare policies and religious incentives to win back the support of the community. Similarly, they are making subtle religious appeals in their village programmes, highlighting the developmental achievements of their government in the past 10 years besides promising to come up with more incentives for farmers. However, the majority of the electorate does not seem to be impressed with this.
The Congress’ strategy is to prioritise agrarian issues. The party is hoping to win the support of the Jatt Sikhs by announcing loan waivers for farmers and by taking up the issue of the Sutlej-Yamuna Link Canal.
Finally, AAP is trying to project itself as a champion of Sikh religious interests by invoking the issue of the Sikh killings of 1984; it is planning to win over farmers by offering loan waivers and subsidized loans; it is appealing to youth disenchanted by unemployment and drug menace; and appealing to the small business community by promising riddance from the kabza mafias.
However, the edge is with the AAP, which has been aggressively posturing against Akali leaders and promising to send them to jail if voted to power. For Congress, the dominant image advantage happens to be its pro-farmer image, especially that of Capt. Amarinder Singh. For Akalis, the game is one of survival.
Interestingly, the AAP’s aggressive posturing vis-a-vis the traditional parties has had the Congress and Akalis raking up the outsider sentiment, portraying Kejriwal as a Haryanvi. Additionally, AAP is also grappling with a weak organizational presence, especially in the Majha and Doaba regions and seems to be focusing predominantly on the Malwa region, which accounts for 69 out of the 117 Assembly seats.
The existing scenario in Punjab signifies a fluid political dynamics wherein the entry of AAP as a third alternative has not only unsettled the old political equations but also has led to a reversal of political strategies wherein the overarching priority of the incumbent Akalis is focused on winning over a sizeable Dalit constituency while the core of the Jatt Sikhs are likely to shift towards the AAP.
In this fast changing scenario, the outcome of the ensuing elections in Punjab will depend of the relative success or failure of the Akalis winning over the Dalits and retaining their traditional Panthic Jatt-Sikh vote; the Congress succeeding in prioritizing the agrarian issues; and AAP succeeding in projecting itself as the harbinger of change.
(Sajjan Kumar, a research associate at ICSSR, is associated with People’s Pulse, a Hyderabad-based research organisation specializing in field-work-based political and electoral studies)