NEW DELHI: Brace yourself for a more intense monsoon this year as hotter temperatures, heavier rains, and a spike in climate-related risks are forecast for India and its Himalayan neighbours, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
The Hindu kush Himalayan (HKH) region, which includes India, Nepal, Pakistan, and parts of China, may see temperatures climb up to 2ºC above normal along with widespread above-average rainfall.
ICIMOD utilised data from global and national meteorological agencies to compile its predictions and concluded that it could lead to an increase in heat stress, outbreaks of waterborne diseases like dengue, and a surge in floods, landslides, and glacial hazards.
“The forecasts are unanimous in predicting hotter conditions and more rainfall across much of the HKH,” said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, senior advisor at ICIMOD.
Floods remain the leading cause of disaster-related deaths in the region, with over 72 percent occurring during the summer monsoon.
Meanwhile, water-scarce Afghanistan may receive less rainfall, worsening food and water insecurity. “We need impact-based early warnings and stronger support to prepare for these growing risks,” said Saswata Sanyal, ICIMOD’s Disaster Risk Reduction Manager.
WMO sees more wet monsoons till 2029
The World Meteorological Organisation says South Asia has had wetter than average monsoons in recent years, except in 2023 due to El Nino, and expects the trend to continue until 2029
Getting hotter 0.5 to 2˚c
The entire Himalayas, from the Hindu Kush, will have more than normal this summer.
Precipitation pattern
It will vary across the ranges with wetter monsoon predicted for Tibetan Plateau, India, Nepal and Pakistan.
Perilous outcome
Above-normal monsoon precipitations across much of South Asia leaves Himalayas vulnerable to hazards like floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods.