PATNA: The second phase of Bihar Assembly elections on November 11 is set to witness a tight contest in the Seemanchal region, where Dalits and Muslim voters hold significant influence.
All attention is now focused on Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) and Hyderabad MP-led Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). While AIMIM hopes to repeat its 2020 performance of bagging five seats, JSP is attempting to open its account in the region.
Owaisi’s focus is on Muslim dominated districts of Araria, Kishanganj, Katihar and Purnea where it won five out of the 24 seats in the 2020 Assembly election. AIMIM has fielded 15 candidates—four each in Kishanganj and Purnea, five in Katihar and two in Araria. Out of the 24 seats in Seemanchal region—seven each are in Purnea and Katihar, six in Araria and four in Kishanganj. Though the main contest will be between BJP-JD(U)-led NDA and RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, the entry of JSP and AIMIM has made the fight triangular at some places.
The Seemanchal region houses a Muslim population of about 47%. Muslims form close to 68% of Kishanganj, around 44-45% in Katihar and Araria and nearly 39% of the population in Purnea, respectively.
While a huge chunk of voters were predominantly backers of RJD-led Mahagathbandhan for long, they have been seeking a new leadership before Owaisi made his entry.
In 2020, Owaisi’s party won five seats, only to lose four of them to RJD within two years when his MLAs jumped the ship. At present, AIMIM has only one MLA in the 243-member Assembly. This time, AIMIM is attempting to channelise the anger of Muslim voters in its favour, apparently over issues like migration, unemployment and the Waqf Act.
Notably, one-fourth of Bihar’s 2.31 crore Muslim population live in the Seemanchal region. The 24 constituencies of this region—about 10% of the state’s total 243 seats—will go to the polls in the second phase.
The grievance among Muslims in the region is that Mahagathbandhan chose Mukesh Sahani—who represents Mallah community—accounting for barely 2-3% of state’s population as its deputy chief ministerial face, instead of someone from the Muslim community, which makes about 17% of the population.
Seemanchal is also important for RJD-Congress alliance which is eyeing the Muslim and Yadav votes. AIMIM is accused of playing vote-splitting among Muslim electorate. This split could benefit JD(U)-BJP.
“My experience shows that Muslims of Seemanchal region vote wisely. They will vote for AIMIM in the case they see a close fight with JD(U) or RJD candidates,” said an analyst.
Owaisi is in alliance with Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) and his Janata Party. JSP has posed a challenge to AIMIM by fielding Muslim candidates in the region. ‘Development, education and good governance’, are the major poll plank of JSP in this election. The village ‘chaupal’ organised by the party ahead of election also became a talking point.
The battle of Seemanchal
The Seemanchal region, where Muslims and Dalits are decisive voters, is at the centre of second phase of the polls
A triangular contest: While the main fight remains between NDA and Mahagathbandhan (RJD-led), entry of Owaisi’s AIMIM & Kishor’s JSP has made contests three-cornered in several seats
AIMIM’s focus: AIMIM has fielded 15 candidates across Kishanganj, Purnea, Katihar and Araria, hoping to regain ground after winning five seats in 2020 but retaining only one after defections
A challenge for JSP: JSP, contesting on themes of development, education, and good governance, is seeking to open its account by fielding Muslim candidates and engaging voters through local chaupals.
Stakes remain high
Seemanchal has 24 seats (making up around 10% of the Bihar Assembly)
In 2020, AIMIM won 5, NDA 12 and Mahagathbandhan 7
11 Muslim MLAs were elected from the Seemanchal region in 2020
Women and young voters are expected to play a crucial role this time