NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a wetter and cooler September in its latest monthly weather outlook. Additionally, there is a higher likelihood of a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon, which may extend into October.
Typically, the monsoon begins to withdraw in the first week of September and concludes by 30th September. However, the IMD has observed a shifting trend over the past four decades, indicating increased rainfall during September and a tendency for later withdrawal. This year, a robust monsoon is expected to further delay the withdrawal process.
“Given the favourable monsoon conditions, we anticipate that the withdrawal will begin after 17th September and potentially extend into October,” stated Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD.
The IMD predicts that rainfall across India in September will be above normal, exceeding 109% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for September rainfall, based on data from 1971–2020, stands at approximately 167.9 mm.
However, certain regions, including parts of Northeast and East India, many areas in the extreme South Peninsular region, and some northernmost areas, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
Additionally, the monthly average maximum temperatures are projected to remain normal to below normal in many regions, except for east-central, eastern, and northeastern India, as well as parts of northwest India and the western coastal belt. Conversely, the monthly average minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to above normal across most parts of the country.
Between June and August 2025, India recorded 6.1% above-normal rainfall, receiving 743 mm compared to the normal of 700.1 mm. Apart from the East and Northeast, most of the country experienced above-normal rainfall during these three months.
Specifically, India saw above-normal rainfall in June (8.9%), July (4.8%), and August (5.2%). August's rainfall surpassed IMD's initial prediction of normal to below-normal levels. The month recorded 268.1 mm of rain, making it the seventh highest since 2001 and the 46th highest since 1901.
Northwest India experienced its highest rainfall since 2001, ranking as the 13th highest since 1901, while the South Peninsular region reported its third highest rainfall since 2001 and the eighth highest since 1901.
The IMD attributed these record rainfall levels to an unusually high number of western disturbances in the northwest and the formation of low-pressure areas off the Odisha coast, which predominantly moved north and south, rather than towards central India.
In its analysis of August’s rainfall, the IMD noted that the country experienced the second-highest number of extremely and very heavy rainfall events in the past five years. These events were largely concentrated in the Western Ghats, Telangana, and northern India.