NEW DELHI: The BJP, contesting the West Bengal Assembly elections 2026 as the principal Opposition with 77 sitting MLAs, faces one of the most formidable electoral challenges in its history in any state. Although some in the party perceive that the removal of over 90 lakh names from the electoral rolls during the recent Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise as having marginally eased the electoral terrain, the reality on the ground remains far more complex.
A key concern for the BJP is the significant consolidation and polarisation of the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) core support base, particularly among Muslim voters. This demographic, constituting roughly 30-34 percent of the state’s population, has shown signs of consolidating strongly behind the TMC. In districts where minority populations exceed 50%, such as Murshidabad and Malda, this consolidation has made electoral gains particularly challenging for the BJP across at least 10-12 constituencies.
The BJP’s electoral optimism this time is rooted in two principal factors: the deletion of a substantial number of voters during the SIR process, and the emergence of a political alignment between the AIMIM and AJUP, led by former TMC leader Humayun Kabir, that is supposed to be eating into the TMC’s Muslim vote bank. The party continues to rely heavily on an aggressive campaign strategy led by its principal strategist, Home Minister Amit Shah, and extensive rallying by PM Narendra Modi.
The elections are also a test for the ruling TMC, which is facing one of its toughest battles to retain power. While the BJP has worked to consolidate its organisational strength and has supported electoral roll revisions aimed at “purifying” voter lists, the TMC continues to maintain a stronghold in many of these regions due to entrenched support among minority communities.
The enduring personal popularity and grassroots connect of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee remain a significant hurdle in the state’s politics. Her welfare-driven governance model, including schemes targeted at women and marginalised groups, continues to resonate strongly with voters.
The BJP also faces organisational limitations at the booth level in comparison to the TMC’s deeply entrenched cadre network. However, the BJP has formed booth committees in many areas. It must be noted that electoral success in Bengal often hinges on hyper-local mobilisation, where the TMC retains a structural advantage. Third, linguistic and cultural identity politics play a crucial role. The TMC has consistently framed the BJP as an “outsider” party, leveraging Bengali sub-nationalism to consolidate support, particularly in rural and semi-urban regions.
While the BJP is emphasising issues like crimes against women, corruption, and infiltration, these narratives have had mixed resonance. The TMC, in turn, has countered by foregrounding allegations of central neglect, including claims of withheld development funds and of the BJP-led Union government’s misuse of central agencies. Fifth, opposition vote consolidation, particularly among minority voters, reduces the scope for vote fragmentation that had previously benefited the BJP in multi-cornered contests.
Amid these competing narratives, the BJP claims to bring “Bahar in Bengal” through a change in power, thereby heralding a new era of developmental politics, replacing what it alleges is the politics of appeasement.
The TMC continues to mobilise voters around claims of “step-motherly treatment” by the Centre, particularly in relation to development funding. Despite these factors, the BJP feels some dynamics could come into play which, while making the 2026 elections especially challenging, may give it a chance to retain the edge and secure power.
The elections are shaping up into a highly polarised and a no-holds-barred battle, with the BJP and the TMC confronting distinct yet equally formidable challenges.
‘TMC to move court over name deletions’
“At times, I feel like starting practising law again,” West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said on Wednesday, targeting the BJP and the poll panel over name deletions from voter rolls under the SIR, while asserting the TMC would move court over the issue. Banerjee, who has an LLB degree, argued in the Supreme Court on February 4, urging it to intervene in the ongoing SIR of electoral rolls, alleging that Bengal was being targeted. “You will not be able to defeat the TMC by deleting names. We will move court again to resist the exclusion of names,” the TMC chief said, adding, “We will fight legally to get the names included on the list.”