NEW DELHI: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that February will be warmer than usual, with below-average rainfall and higher minimum and maximum temperatures across the country.
This warmer weather is expected to impact the yield of Rabi crops, particularly wheat, oilseeds, and pulses, potentially leading to an increase in pest infestations.
The higher temperatures in February may affect the quality and quantity of Rabi crops. Warmer conditions may cause winter crops to grow too quickly, particularly in Northwest and Central India, forcing them to mature earlier than normal.
This can result in poorly filled grains, reducing the overall harvest. Oilseeds and pulses, such as mustard, chickpea, lentil, and field pea, may experience early flowering and premature maturity, leading to poor pod development, reduced seed size, and lower yields.
Additionally, the warmer conditions may foster the rapid multiplication of aphids and other sucking pests.
In response to these conditions, the IMD has issued an agro-meteorological advisory in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, and state governments.
The advisory includes recommendations for farmers to provide light and frequent irrigation to standing crops during critical stages such as flowering, grain filling, and tuber development to mitigate stress and maintain soil moisture.
Farmers are also advised to regularly monitor their crops for signs of pest attacks including aphids, thrips, and whiteflies.
Extra care for livestock is recommended, ensuring they have adequate drinking water, shade, and proper ventilation.
In February, rainfall across the country is likely to be normal, amounting to less than 81% of the Long Period Average.
Exceptions include Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and eastern Madhya Pradesh, which are expected to receive normal or above-normal rainfall.
Temperatures will be above normal throughout most parts of the country, resulting in warmer day and night conditions.
Some regions in South Peninsular India may see normal minimum temperatures, while the rest of the country will experience warmer nights.
Most parts of the country will also have above-normal maximum temperatures, except for isolated areas in Central India and the southern regions of Peninsular India, where normal maximum temperatures are expected.
The IMD has also highlighted the transition away from La Niña—an East Pacific Ocean climate phenomenon affecting India’s weather—towards a neutral ENSO phase.
This means that from February to April 2026, neither La Niña nor El Niño is expected to be active. However, there are indications that the El Niño phenomenon may dominate during the Indian monsoon, potentially weakening it.
The IMD has not yet made formal observations regarding the summer monsoon. In its January observations, the IMD reported one of the warmest Januaries on record, with a temperature anomaly of +0.28 degrees Celsius.
The Indo-Gangetic plains experienced one of the longest stretches of dense fog, with 15 to 23 days of Dense Fog to Very Dense Fog conditions reported mainly over Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Assam.
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, parts of the western Himalayan region covering Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and the Northeastern region experienced 8 to 14 days of fog.