GUWAHATI: The BJP is going to April 9 Assam elections with an increased focus on the Assamese heartland – Upper Assam.
The region, comprising 27 of the state’s 126 seats, will be key for the BJP as it eyes a third straight term, even as the Congress, weakened by defections of its leaders and defeats in the past decade, is pinning its hopes on a united Opposition.
In past elections, there has been a trend that whichever party or formation wins a maximum number of seats in Upper Assam goes on to form the government. The region had been a Congress bastion when the party under Tarun Gogoi ruled the state for three terms (2001-2016). The Congress’ slide began after the BJP’s emergence as a powerhouse. The BJP could make inroads into the tea-rich region, leading to its victories in 2016 and 2021.
The 27 seats in Upper Assam are spread across Golaghat, Jorhat, Majuli, Sivasagar, Charaideo, Dibrugarh and Tinsukia districts. The population of migrant Muslims, who are called by the pejorative term “Miyas,” is insignificant in the region. Now what made the BJP increase its focus here? To understand this, one has to go back to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The BJP was sitting pretty with a solid support base. The 2024 Lok Sabha election results in Jorhat seat somewhat rejuvenated a moribund Congress when party leader Gaurav Gogoi managed to win, defeating student leader-turned-politician Topon Gogoi of the BJP. The BJP, led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, went all guns blazing to defeat his bete noire Gogoi who is from the Ahom community.
The result set the alarm bells ringing for the ruling party. The Jorhat parliamentary seat has 10 Assembly constituencies falling under Jorhat, Majuli, Sivasagar and Charaideo districts. These seats, as well as the remaining in Upper Assam, have a large number of Ahom and Adivasi (Tea Tribe) voters.
Amid a perception that they would be influenced by Gogoi’s victory, the BJP started working actively in its bid to keep the people of the region in good humour. The BJP-led government took up development initiatives, targeting the Tea Tribe and Ahom communities.
The government invested in tea gardens, focusing on land rights, welfare of tea community and infrastructure. For the first time in the 200-year history of Assam tea, the government decided to grant land pattas to tea workers. Over 3.33 lakh families will be benefitted.
The government also decided to increase their daily wages by `30 from next April 1, constructed 100 new high schools in tea estates and offered one-time financial assistance of `5,000 to tea workers under the Chief Minister’s “Eti Koli Duti Paat” scheme.
The Charaideo Moidams (mound-burial system of the Ahom dynasty) were included in the UNESCO World Heritage Site list. ST status has been a key demand for six communities, including Tea Tribe and Ahom. A group of ministers recommended ST status for them and sent its report to the Centre.
The Congress is hoping that Gogoi and his clean image will keep the party in good stead in the polls. In the recent past, the BJP, led by Sarma, made a vitriolic attack on the Congress MP over his Pakistan visit. The CM called Gogoi an agent of Pakistan’s ISI. Later, Gogoi stated that the CM had no evidence. Observers say that many Ahoms did not like how the BJP attempted to tarnish the image of Gogoi, son of a former CM.
The BJP is facing a challenge from a united Opposition. Six parties – Congress, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), CPI(M), CPI(ML) and All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) – have united with a seat-sharing deal to give the ruling party a run for its money. Three Gogois – Gaurav
Gogoi, Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi and AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi – hail from Upper Assam.
Shadow of ’24 polls defining BJP’s focus
The 27 seats in Upper Assam are spread across Golaghat, Jorhat, Majuli, Sivasagar, Charaideo, Dibrugarh and Tinsukia districts. The population of migrant Muslims, called “Miyas,” is insignificant in the region. What made the BJP increase its focus here? One has to go back to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP was sitting with a solid base. The 2024 election results in Jorhat seat rejuvenated a moribund Congress when party leader Gaurav Gogoi won, beating student leader-turned-politician Topon Gogoi of the BJP. The BJP, led by CM Sarma, went all out to defeat his bete noire Gogoi who is from Ahom community. The result set the alarm bells ringing.