Now that Sunny Leone has agreed not to impose her “obscenity” on the decent Bengaluru folks, those who feared for the safety of Karnataka’s culture and tradition can rest easy. But not Siddaramaiah. In a few days from now, the year will change, whether or not the actor lands in the city to spice up celebrations, and the Chief Minister will, as usual, have his hands full -- more things to fix but fewer days to do that.
The Congress government, and police bosses, acted with surprising alacrity to stop Leone’s New Year event from taking place, merely because an outfit with a knack for turning non-issues into matters of Kannada pride believed her presence would endanger society’s morality and expressed it in its signature style, through an aggressive demonstration. The denial of permission is an overreaction his government could have avoided, but for Siddaramaiah, an entertainment show featuring actors should be the least of his worries, considering that soon he will be fighting an electoral battle that could decide his political survival.
The fate of Leone event is now in the hands of the judiciary and police, but with the actor herself saying she will stay away, the prospect of it happening is as slim as chances of Siddaramaiah having it easy in the Assembly elections to be held in the coming summer, his performance and track record notwithstanding. His fight gets tougher in the light of the BJP’s recent victories in the Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, especially Gujarat.
For the record, Siddaramaiah has said the electoral outcome in Gujarat will not impact Karnataka politics. He is right, but only partially. Apart from geographical distance, Karnataka and Gujarat have starkly different political history and culture. While Gujarat has remained loyal to the BJP for the last two decades, only once did the party win Karnataka convincingly so far. For more than half the time since Gujarat’s formation in 1960, the state has been ruled by non-Congress parties.
In contrast, Karnataka has had less than 20 years of non-Congress rule in its 61-year-long existence. Even in the current political situation marked by the domination of BJP, Gujarat politics, where two national parties are the key players, is much different from that of Karnataka, where an influential JD(S) adds the crucial third dimension.
But one thing that the Gujarat verdict proved is that the Modi factor still matters and the BJP can still depend on it to tip the balance in its favour. The fact that despite several factors, among them sentiments against the Centre’s financial initiatives and consolidation of the dominant Patel community, working in its favour, the Congress could do no more than improve its tally and give the BJP a scare, shows how taking on the mighty Modi-Shah combine requires more than what it normally takes to win elections.
Siddaramaiah has often said Modi magic doesn’t work in Karnataka, and will count for nothing in an Assembly election. The shrewd politician that he is, it is quite unlikely that he also believes in what he says.
Consider this.
BJP’s chief ministerial candidate B S Yeddyurappa is a political force and commands strong loyalty among Lingayats, one of the two dominant communities. In the 2013 Assembly elections, the party formed by him after breaking away from the BJP took nearly 10 per cent of the votes.
His return has strengthened BJP and his leadership is expected to prove decisive. But, even within the BJP, leaders privately say the party is mostly banking on Modi’s image to bring down Siddaramaiah. BJP won a major chunk of Karnataka seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections riding the Modi wave.
The upcoming electoral fight in Karnataka promises to be an interesting one, and will probably be close like the Gujarat elections, and what will make it tough is the Siddaramaiah factor. With his political moves and machinations, he has proved to be more than a match for the state BJP leadership, and equal to the task of taking on the Modi-Shah team.While his pro-development agenda, almost Modi-like, has helped shore up his image, his welfare-oriented governance has struck a chord with the poor, backward castes and minorities. He has acquired a stature, both within and outside his party and government, that could pose a challenge to the BJP’s game plan.
Siddaramaiah has given the Congress hopes of retaining Karnataka amidst a nationwide BJP surge. But what should worry the party and could weaken its odds of defeating the BJP are deep divisions within. A strong Siddaramaiah may serve the party’s interest, but not of those party leaders who nurture chief ministerial ambitions themselves.Siddaramaiah’s continuation as CM in the event of the party retaining power can seriously hurt their prospects. Siddaramaiah may appear strong and confident, but whether he can keep BJP at bay will depend on his ability to fight a two-front war.
One thing is certain, if the Congress wins, it will be because of Siddaramaiah. If it loses, it will be despite Siddaramaiah. And, with or without Leone’s help, the New Year will raise political heat in Karnataka.