Behind a seeming thaw in the atmospherics between India and the US from last week is Washington’s biggest secret of the moment— a meeting between President Donald Trump and a private Indian citizen.
The venue of the meeting? Where else, but a golf course! How long did the meeting last? Just over 10 minutes, which is about the duration of the septuagenarian president’s normal attention span. The two men did not discuss trade tariffs. It was not a diplomacy pow-wow. They talked about Trump’s daughter Ivanka’s 2017 visit to Hyderabad. The Indian citizen was very much there. They recalled Trump’s visit to Ahmedabad 27 months later. The Indian was present there too, and told Trump that seeing him in person was the greatest moment in the lives of a quarter million people in Gujarat. “A quarter million Indians!” Trump exclaimed. “Explain that to me.” There were 1,32,000 people inside the Narendra Modi Stadium, which was filled to capacity, was the explanation. There were an equal number of people who lined up on the route of Trump’s cavalcade wherever he went in Ahmedabad. Trump knows that he cannot get that kind of a crowd in his own country. Or for that matter, anywhere else in the world.
Exaggerating the importance of the ‘Namaste Trump’ events five years ago, the Indian said it was one of the high points in his life as well. The hype was meant solely to hit its target—Trump’s huge ego. The two men briefly talked about real estate projects promoted by the Trump Organization, which entered commercial property development in Pune five months ago for the first time in India. Praise was showered on the vision of Trump’s son Eric, who is in charge of the India projects, and whom the Indian has met many times in connection with this real estate business. India is set to have the most number of Trump Towers anywhere in the world outside the US.
As someone who followed Trump extensively during his successful 2016 presidential election and reported on his first term in the White House, this author has little doubt that this golf course conversation with the Indian prompted the president’s recollection last week of his “special relationship” with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “I’ll always be friends with Modi, he is a great prime minister,” Trump said. The prime minister promptly and “deeply” appreciated Trump’s remarks and “fully” reciprocated those sentiments. It was only the first time that Modi has mentioned Trump’s name since the tariff crisis engulfed the Indian public domain. On Tuesday, Trump remained positive, describing India and the US as “great countries”. Modi again responded, saying he looked forward to speaking with the president.
I am not naming the private Indian citizen because he has not reported his meeting with the president to the Indian government. “Why should I tell the Indian government?” he asked me. His was an act of goodwill in statecraft. I am not calling him an interlocutor because he was not one. He was not even a back channel. He was merely leveraging his many years of engaging with the president and members of his family. His aim was to contribute whatever he could to repair India-US relations, in which he has invested more than three decades and continues to do so.
Probing this meeting in Washington, I discovered that no one in the official structure of the Trump administration knows about it either. Except one person whom the president trusts the most in Washington: his sole gatekeeper in the White House. In his second administration, Trump has filled this gatekeeper’s post with extreme care, avoiding the pitfalls in his first term when aides played musical chairs. When the gatekeeper wanted to create an official record of the conversation, Trump said it was not necessary. It was a golf turf chat, he said. No official business was discussed. What was there to record, except emotions and sentiments?
There are several Americans who are aware of this meeting—those who saw the two men amiably converse on the grass in their full view, for example. But they are all outside the US administration. Maybe, one day Trump will talk about this meeting, if indeed it impacts his India policy in the long run. When the president plays golf, only trustworthy people are allowed on the course. They will not loosely blabber about what happens there.
Where do we go from here? The meeting’s impact ‘in the long run’ now depends entirely on the Indian government’s actions and the public pronouncements of its political leaders. Nothing is secret anymore about India’s tariff negotiations with the Trump administration. In dribbles, since February, when Modi called on Trump at the White House, the president has revealed everything there is to know about these trade talks. About a week ago, Trump said India offered zero tariff on US goods at one point. In contrast, India has officially said very little about the content of the five rounds of discussions it had with Washington officials.
Leaks aimed at a domestic audience have been numerous. This was bad strategy and has weakened India’s case within the US, where Trump’s position has big support. The only tactical mistake Trump made was to top up his original 25 percent duty with an additional “sanction” of 25 percent in the name of Russian oil purchases. It was a tactical mistake because it was India-specific and China was exempted from a similar levy.
There is a strong political view in New Delhi that India should maintain its macho stance with the US until after the Bihar elections and then compromise with Trump. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney did just that. He won the Canadian elections in April on strident anti-US rhetoric and cut retaliatory tariffs on US goods from September 1.
To reach any trade agreement with the Trump administration, India must honestly admit publicly that its import duties on American goods are indeed high, for whatever reasons. Domestic public opinion may not digest it, but most countries do believe India is the world’s “tariff king”, as Trump alleges. A great disparity exists in the reciprocal duties between India and the US. It is not possible for India to continue robust trade with America unless it agrees to reciprocity and equality in mutual commerce.
K P Nayar | Strategic analyst
(Views are personal)