Five years ago, when the campaign for West Bengal’s 17th legislative Assembly got under way, there was foreboding across the border in Bangladesh about its outcome. Many Bangladeshis who consider Kolkata as an extension of their home were worried that the BJP may come to power. Scores of tourists from Dhaka and Gazipur, among the hundreds who thronged Kolkata’s New Market, told me they wanted Mamata Banerjee back as chief minister. She was their Didi too.
This time it is different. Bangladesh has changed dramatically since Sheikh Hasina was driven out of power nearly two years ago. In the three months that Tarique Rahman has been Hasina’s elected successor, the younger prime minister has shown that there is light at the end of the tunnel. The BJP has also changed enough in Bengal, at least in optics, to set at rest the fears that pervaded Bangladeshis’ during the 2021 poll campaign. There were, of course, far fewer Bangladeshis in New Market last month. The suspension of tourist visas during the interim government in Dhaka meant only medical tourists or emergency visitors constituted the scant numbers in Kolkata.
For Bangladeshis, language was the biggest concern about the BJP five years ago. The rumour mill on social media had spread the canard that if the BJP formed a government in West Bengal, Hindi would progressively replace Bengali. The BJP did not help matters when it released its first list of candidates only in English and Hindi, not in Bengali. The party’s press conference announcing the list was also entirely in Hindi. The Left parties, on the other hand, put out their candidates’ list solely in Bengali and Banerjee’s press conference announcing the Trinamool Congress candidates was also in the state language. This must be set against the background of the martyrdom of East Bengalis in 1952, when they were struggling for the primacy of Bengali over Urdu. Their martyrdom is commemorated to this day on every February 21—Amar Ekushey or Immortal Twenty-first.
What is it that concerns Bangladeshis today about their neighbouring province with which they share a common language, history and culture? They want visas to visit Kolkata for medical treatment, for the delights of the hospitality business of this metropolis, for its shopping—and not the least, to hop across its bars, because drinking in Dhaka is a shady business although there is no total prohibition. On May 5, when a fake media post was circulated in India that from September 30, alcohol would not be available in West Bengal, it caused huge consternation across the border. The fake news went viral in Dhaka and the state government had to put a big red “FAKE” stamp on the post and re-circulate it.
Ordinary Bangladeshis are the least concerned if China is competing with India for influence in their country, or if the interim government of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus looked at Pakistani fighter jets made in collaboration with China for possible purchase. That is the stuff for pundits in television studios in Noida Film City. News was leaked in New Delhi about 10 days ago by the ministry of home affairs that India was contemplating full resumption of visa services for Bangladeshi nationals. This was greeted like the late arrival of a festival—not only in Dhaka, but from Sylhet to Satkhira, Rajshahi to Rangpur—in all the 15 cities and towns where Indian Visa Application Centres (IVACs) are located.
It is not widely known that a fifth of India’s foreign visitors come from Bangladesh, including on family visits. The peak year for such arrivals in recent times was 2023, when 21.2 lakh Bangladeshis visited. After Hasina’s escape to India and a deterioration in bilateral relations—including threats to Indian diplomatic posts in prominent cities like Chittagong—this figure spiralled down to less than 5 lakh last year. Bangladesh, meanwhile, resumed visa services for Indian nationals on February 20.
There are two stories circulating on Raisina Hill, the seat of power in the national capital, about precisely when and why full, normal acceptance of visa applications in Dhaka and other IVACs will be resumed. One story is that India wants to start full visa operations with a bang, coinciding with the presentation of credentials by its new High Commissioner to Dhaka, Dinesh Trivedi. The Bengali-speaking, Kolkata-resident Trivedi’s appointment has been well received in Bangladesh, and a return to full visa services would be a good augury for turning the bilateral diplomatic page with the unprecedented choice of a non-career high commissioner. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a lot of store by Trivedi and expects him to play a major role in turning around relations with the eastern neighbour. This was evident when Modi praised Trivedi during a meeting of all Indian ambassadors and high commissioners in New Delhi in late April.
The second story doing the rounds is that India is offering a lifeline to Khalilur Rahman, Foreign Minister in Tarique Rahman’s new government. The minister’s position is said to be shaky because of shadows lengthening around him owing to his association with the interim Yunus administration. He was national security adviser to Yunus. It is said in Dhaka that questions are beginning to be raised about his role in that post in the interim administration. Khalilur Rahman was also the High Representative for the Rohingya Issue under Yunus, another controversial subject. Rahman, who was in New Delhi in early April, appears to have made an earnest effort to contribute to better relations with India. His meeting with the Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, resulted in stepped up diesel supplies to Bangladesh to cope with the fallout of the Iran war. If India resumes full visa services to Bangladeshis, Rahman may claim some of the credit and attribute this important step, at least partly, to his discussions in New Delhi. India will thus have an IOU from Rahman for future encashment.
It was amusing to hear talk in Bangladesh about “double-engine government” after the results for West Bengal’s 18th Assembly were declared. But there are miles to go before tangible benefits from this cliché can flow across India’s longest land border in both directions.
K P Nayar | Strategic analyst
(Views are personal)