As the Indian monsoon, the world’s largest weather system, sweeps across the country the India Meteorological Department has once again changed its prediction. After predicting a 98 per cent rainfall in April, the officials now say it could be downsized at 95 per cent. Given India’s widely variant rainfall, a three per cent reduction may not be apocalyptic, but it is bound to cause some discomfiture. Moreover, the department’s predictions have a tendency to go awry and whenever its prescience turns out to be right it is more out of fortuity than conviction.
However, the IMD can’t be entirely blamed for this uncertainty. Even with the best of technology, predicting the Indian monsoon is not easy. It is a sort of colossal sea breeze. As the sub-continent heats up during springtime, a vast plume of hot air rises up over the landmass. This sucks in cooler air off the sea, just like a wind at the seaside. That sea air is also loaded with moisture, and it rises up, turning into towering clouds and pours with rain. To measure its vagaries, the IMD cannot adopt state of art prediction models as the equipment it needs, including automatic weather stations, Doppler weather radars and meteorological balloons are in short supply, and stuck in the complicated, constricting arteries of bureaucracy.
This must change. The country’s economy and the well-being of its people depend heavily on a good monsoon, which causes flood and famines. Dependable predictions will help the government and the people for what is in store for them and save colossal waste of lives and property. The government must invest in upgrading IMD’s technology and operationalise its long-delayed Monsoon Mission, whose raison d´être is to develop dynamical models for India, especially when IMD itself admits that statistical models are passé.